KU basketball is in the Big 12 Tournament semifinals. How the Jayhawks can advance vs. ISU
After defeating West Virginia on Thursday, the No. 1-seeded Kansas men’s basketball team will play No. 5-seeded Iowa State in the Big 12 Tournament quarterfinals on Friday at T-Mobile Center.
The two teams last met in February, with the Cyclones beating the Jayhawks 68-53 in Hilton Coliseum. KU split the season series.
No. 5 Iowa State comes off a 78-72 win over No. 4 Baylor on Thursday.
Below is a scouting report and prediction of the game.
Friday’s game: No. 1 seed Kansas vs. No. 5 seed Iowa State
When/where: 6 p.m., T-Mobile Center
TV/Streaming: ESPN
Opponent’s record: 19-12, 9-9 Big 12
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 20
All statistics are from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and EvanMiya. KenPom stats only include Division I competition.
Iowa State Team Strengths
Elite defense: Iowa State ranks 6th in adjusted defensive efficiency (91.6). Adjusted defensive efficiency is the number of points a team allows per 100 possessions, adjusted for the opponent
Crash the offensive glass: The Cyclones rank 30th in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage (33.7). Kansas, at times, has struggled in that area in losses
Creating havoc: Iowa State ranks second in opposing turnover percentage (25.1) and 12th in turnovers forced per game (16.8)
Iowa State Weaknesses
Careless with the ball: While they force a lot of turnovers, the Cyclones rank 262nd in turnover percentage (19.4) themselves
Issues at the line: Iowa State ranks 318th in free-throw percentage (67.3).
Old school play: The Cyclones don’t take a lot of threes. They rank 277th in three-point attempt percentage (34.9)
Iowa State Name to Know
6-foot-4 senior guard Gabe Kalscheur (No. 22)
+ Excellent finisher around the rim (72.5%)
+ Quick hands (1.5 steals per game)
+ On hot streak (24+ points, 5+ made threes in two of his last three games)
- So-so at the free throw line (73.5%)
- Not much of a passer (1.6 assists per game)
Tale of the Tape
The Cyclones aren’t amazing offensively, but they do one thing well: share the ball. Iowa State ranks 67th in the nation in assist rate.
On this sequence, after the initial pass, Tre King found Robert Jones in transition, who immediately dunked the ball. Iowa State shoots 72.1% at the rim in transition, so KU needs to emphasize getting back when possible and avoiding live-ball turnovers to limit transition chances.
Iowa State is among the best in the nation in turning defense into offense. Here, Tamin Lindsay stole the ball from TCU and immediately converted it into a fast-break dunk. The Cyclones love to trap opposing players in corners because it forces desperate passes — as it did here.
The key to this one? Don’t turn it over ... and if you do, don’t let it be a live-ball one.
Game Prediction
KU comes in after a stout defensive effort in its win against West Virginia on Thursday.
Iowa State’s defense is a matchup nightmare for KU in many ways. Not only are the Cyclones tall, long and physical, but they put the most speed and pressure on any opponent in the Big 12.
So when Kansas isn’t moving the ball crisply and carefully, it leads to KU forward Jalen Wilson having to do a lot more himself and the Jayhawks having an immense amount of turnovers, both of which happened last time. The high-pressure defense is one of the toughest in the Big 12.
How does KU counter that? By putting the Cyclones in foul trouble. Iowa State tends to foul, ranking 339th in opponent free-throw attempt percentage (39.5).
On the other side of the court, KU’s biggest worry should be keeping the Cyclones off the offensive glass. Limiting offensive rebounds by Iowa State prevents the Cyclones from second-chance points, which can help shift the game’s momentum and prevent a mediocre offense from being the difference maker.
Honestly, this one is really a tough one to predict. The game should be a true neutral game with fans of both teams in the building. Overall, I think KU has improved quite a bit since these two teams last faced and I believe that will ultimately be the difference maker. Give me Kansas by just a tad.
Kansas 74, Iowa State 72
Shreyas’ pick to cover the spread: Iowa State (+4.5)
Shreyas’ season record: 15-7
Shreyas’ record against the spread: 13-9
KU Player to watch: KJ Adams.
KJ Adams is somewhat of an unconventional choice for this game, but I think his play will be vital in two major areas. The first of those is rebounding — he’s not necessarily the best at it, but more importantly he boxes out and allows his teammates to get rebounds.
The second thing is his ability to score in the short pick-and-roll — and to create offense for teammates from that position. Against a stout Iowa State defense, Kansas will need to find quality shots wherever possible and that shot is near automatic.
If Adams can help KU win the rebounding battle and provide some help offensively, the Jayhawks should be in good shape
This story was originally published March 10, 2023 at 9:53 AM.
