Can the hobbled Kansas Jayhawks pull off a revenge victory against TCU Monday night?
.JPG "Kansas guard Kevin McCullar Jr.’s health could play a key role against TCU.")
After beating Baylor on Saturday, the Kansas men’s basketball team will look to extend its winning streak to five games at TCU Monday night.
The two teams last met in January, with the Horned Frogs blowing out Kansas 83-60 at Allen Fieldhouse.
TCU is coming off a 100-75 win over Oklahoma State. The Horned Frogs are a physical team that hangs its hat on defense and is headlined by an elite guard.
Below is a scouting report and prediction for the game:
Monday’s game: No. 5 Kansas vs. No. 22 TCU
When/where: 8 p.m. at Schollmaier Arena in Fort Worth
TV/streaming: ESPN
Opponent’s record: 18-9, 7-7 Big 12
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: No. 19
All statistics are from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and EvanMiya. KenPom stats only include Division I competition.
TCU Team Strengths
Lockdown defense: TCU ranks 21st in adjusted defensive efficiency (94). Adjusted defensive efficiency is the number of points a team allows per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent.
Unselfish play: The Horned Frogs rank 22nd in the nation in assist rate (59%)
Thrive inside the arc: TCU ranks 38th in the nation in two-point percentage (54.4)
TCU Team Weaknesses
Issues from beyond the arc: The Horned Frogs rank 353rd in three-point percentage (29.2)
Charity stripe issues: TCU ranks 245th in the nation in free-throw percentage (69.9)
Struggles on the defensive glass: Though the Horned Frogs are great offensive rebounders, they struggle with defensive rebounds. They rank 218th in defensive rebounds per game (24.4).
TCU Name to Know
6-foot-2 junior guard Mike Miles Jr. (No. 1)
+ Elite finisher at the rim ( 76.5%)
+ Quick hands (1.4 steals per game)
- Not a great shooter (31.8% from three-point range)
- Turnover prone (2.8 turnovers per game)
Tale of the Tape
The Horned Frogs are a dangerous team in transition. Here, TCU forward Chuck O’Bannon Jr. stole the ball from Oklahoma State and quickly passed it to Shahada Wells, who converted the fast-break layup. Kansas needs to limit turnovers, but if the Jayhawks do turn it over they need to make sure to protect the rim. They also should foul this poor free-throw shooting TCU team instead of letting them get a good look in transition — the Frogs shoot 69.1% at the rim.
TCU completely shifts the momentum of games with its offensive rebounding capabilities. Here, guard Micah Peavy collected the offensive rebound and passed it to Damion Baugh on the perimeter. Baugh then drove, drew two Baylor defenders and dumped off to Xavier Cork, who dunked the basketball.
Kansas sometimes has issues with boxing out, so that should be a priority for the Jayhawks. Otherwise, the Horned Frogs could seize momentum or stick around.
Game Prediction
KU rolls into Texas with four straight wins, including a big comeback over Baylor on Saturday. Look for Kansas to exact some revenge in this one after getting blown out by TCU in January.
Last time around, the Horned Frogs dominated inside, with 42 paint points to KU’s 26. Simply put, TCU is bigger and more physical than Kansas, but the emergence of Ernest Udeh levels the playing field a bit. If the Jayhawks can limit TCU on the boards and form a wall in the paint, they stand a great chance of winning this game.
The Frogs made Kansas look one-dimensional last time. Jalen Wilson was the only KU player to score over 10 points. KU’s counter is guards Dajuan Harris and Kevin McCullar Jr. playing aggressively and taking shots early. That opens up the floor for Wilson and Gradey Dick.
I like Kansas in this one mainly because many of its mistakes vs. TCU last time were correctable. And the stakes are higher now. KU is currently tied for first in the conference with Texas, so every game matters. Look for the Jayhawks pull out a close one here.
Kansas 75, TCU 72
Shreyas’ pick to cover the spread: Kansas (+1.5)
Shreyas’ season record: 11-7
Shreyas’ record against the spread: 10-8
KU Player to watch: Kevin McCullar
KU guard McCullar is nursing an ankle injury.
Kansas coach Bill Self said McCullar was playing through pain in the Baylor game; his health Monday could be pivotal. The Jayhawks need McCullar to move well enough laterally to keep up with TCU’s guards and make open shots when needed.
At times against Baylor, McCullar appeared a step slow. Against a big, physical team like TCU, quickness matters. As long as he’s moving defensively and contributing offensively, he can help ensure that KU departs Fort Worth with a victory.
