OSU might have the Big 12’s best defense. Can Kansas pull off a season sweep? Prediction
After a blowout win against Oklahoma on Saturday, the Kansas men’s basketball team will look to extend its win streak to three games against Oklahoma State on Tuesday.
The two teams met in December, with the Jayhawks winning 69-67 over the Cowboys in Allen Fieldhouse.
OSU enters off a 64-56 win against Iowa State on Saturday. The Cowboys have won four straight conference games and five straight overall.
Below is a scouting report and prediction of the game.
Saturday’s game: No. 5 Kansas vs. Oklahoma State
When/where: 8 p.m., Tuesday, Gallagher-Iba Arena
TV/Streaming: ESPN
Opponent’s record: 16-9, 7-5 Big 12
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 27
All statistics are from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and EvanMiya. KenPom stats only include Division I competition.
Oklahoma State Team Strengths
Elite defense: On Saturday, KU coach Bill Self called Oklahoma State the best defense in the Big 12. Not only is Self correct, but the Cowboys are among the best in the nation on defense. Oklahoma State ranks fifth in opposing field goal percentage (43.8) and seventh in opposing team two-point percentage (43.3)
Nothing easy on the outside: OSU ranks 17th in opposing team three-point percentage (29.6).
Paint protectors: The Cowboys rank 7th in block percentage (14.8) and 14th in blocks per game (5.3)
Oklahoma State Team Weaknesses
Struggle with the long ball: OSU ranks 258th in three-point percentage (32.4)
Turnover galore: Oklahoma State struggles to take care of the ball. The Cowboys rank 313th in turnover percentage (20.8).
Foul issues: Oklahoma State ranks 255th in two-foul participation percentage: If Kansas gets any Cowboys into foul trouble early, don’t expect to see them on the court much.
Oklahoma State Name to Know
6-foot-9 senior forward Kalib Boone (No. 22)
+ Elite finisher at the rim (72.1%)
+ Good rebounder (5.5 rebounds per game)
- Not a shooter (14.3% from three-point range)
- Turnover prone (2.3 turnovers per game)
Tale of the Tape
Boone does a great job of converting second-chance opportunities — he shoots 65.2% on put-backs at the rim. Here, an OSU player shot the ball and Boone immediately ran toward the basket. He caught the ball in mid-air and converted the put-back dunk.
Kansas has had its issues with boxing out all season, and that could be a problem spot against the Cowboys and Boone, who averages 2.4 offensive rebounds per game.
Another name to look out for? OSU guard John Michael-Wright, who has been red-hot and doesn’t hesitate behind the arc. Here, Michael-Wright created a little space and canned the three.
Michael-Wright has been on a heater in his last three games, shooting 7-for-14 from beyond the arc. Kansas needs to get in his airspace, deny him the ball and force him into taking difficult three-pointers.
Game Prediction
After two straight conference wins, Kansas (20-5, 8-4 Big 12) can pull even with Texas atop the Big 12 with a win on Tuesday. That was made possible by Texas losing at Texas Tech on Monday.
KU’s offense has thrived in the last two games because it has shared the scoring load and not just relied on star forward Jalen Wilson. Playing against OSU’s elite defense is the perfect litmus test on whether the Jayhawks can support Wilson.
On the flip side, I think Kansas’ defense matches up well with Oklahoma State’s offense. The big thing KU needs to focus on is limiting the Cowboys’ second-chance opportunities.
It’ll be ugly, but I think Kansas walks out the victor on Tuesday night. OSU’s defense will make it difficult for KU, but I don’t think the Cowboys can keep up offensively.
Give me the Jayhawks by a sliver here.
Kansas 73, Oklahoma State 69
Shreyas’ pick to cover the spread: Kansas (-2)
Shreyas’ season record: 10-7
Shreyas’ record against the spread: 9-8
KU Player to Watch: Gradey Dick
If any Kansas player tends to bounce back with a good game after a quiet game, it’s freshman guard Gradey Dick. Dick scored eight points on 4-for-5 shooting from the floor against Oklahoma on Saturday.
Earlier this year, OSU held Dick in check — limiting him to nine points on 3-for-9 shooting from the floor. Still, Dick made an impact on the game by grabbing nine rebounds.
Oklahoma State essentially gave the blueprint on how the rest of the Big 12 has defended Dick. Dick has seen a lot of face-guarding, and teams have run him off the three-point line.
Since then, Dick has gotten a lot better at countering those tactics. So look for Dick to potentially have a revenge game and make his impact felt on both ends of the court.
If Dick can provide his scoring along with the rebounding he showcased previously against the Cowboys, it will be a long night for OSU.
This story was originally published February 14, 2023 at 7:00 AM.
