In hostile road environment, KU basketball can lean on steady PG: WVU opponent breakdown
The Kansas men’s basketball team travels to Morgantown to face Big 12 conference foe West Virginia on Saturday.
Both teams last met in the Big 12 tournament quarterfinals, with the Jayhawks winning 87-63 over the Mountaineers in Kansas City. KU has won eight of last nine meetings in the series.
West Virginia is coming off a 67-60 loss to OSU on Monday. Led by legendary coach Bob Huggins, WVU seeks its first conference win on Saturday at WVU Coliseum.
The Mountaineers will present a daunting challenge as a team that is elite on both sides of the ball with a sharpshooting guard that the Jayhawks have to limit from beyond the arc.
Below is a scouting report and prediction of the game.
Tuesday’s game: West Virginia vs. No. 3 Kansas
When/where: 5:00 p.m., WVU Coliseum (Morgantown, West Virginia)
TV/Streaming: ESPN+
Opponent’s record: 10-4, 0-2 Big 12
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 20
All statistics are from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and EvanMiya. KenPom stats only include Division I competition.
West Virginia team strengths
Elite offense: West Virginia ranks 27th in adjusted offensive efficiency (111.9). Adjusted offensive efficiency is a measure of a team’s points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent.
Live on second chances: West Virginia does a terrific job controlling the offensive glass. The Mountaineers rank 34th in offensive rebounding rate (34.6%) and average 9.8 offensive rebounds per game.
Hang their hats on defense: WVU ranks 33rd in adjusted defensive efficiency (93). The team does a great job of forcing turnovers with its patented press. Opponents have a turnover percentage of 22.8 vs. West Virginia, a mark that ranks 33rd nationally.
West Virginia team weaknesses
Reluctant shooters: West Virginia ranks 263rd in three-point attempt percentage (34.2). In fact, only 27.5% of their total points distribution is by threes, ranking 269th.
Struggles at the line: The Mountaineers do a great job of getting to the line but struggle to convert freebies. They shoot 70.3% from the line, which ranks 205th.
New faces: This West Virginia team doesn’t have many players from last season. The team ranks 328th in minutes continuity percentage (17). Minutes continuity is determined by what percentage of a team’s minutes are played by the same player from last season to this season.
PLAYER TO WATCH
6-foot-4 guard Erik Stevenson (No. 10)
+ Efficient scorer; 63.4% true shooting percentage
+ Sharpshooter; he shoots 44.8% from 3.
- Not much of a passer; averaging 2.4 assists per game
- Not a great free throw shooter (68.8%)
Tale of the Tape
West Virginia loves to score off offensive rebounds. Here, WVU collected the rebound and quickly got the pass to Stevenson. Naturally, the OSU defense was displaced and Stevenson made them pay, canning the three. KU has to put an emphasis on collecting rebounds — and if they don’t, they have to get out to Stevenson and other WVU shooters.
WVU thrives off chaos. Here, guard Kedrian Johnson won the loose ball and quickly found a streaking Emmitt Matthews Jr. He then promptly dunked the ball. West Virginia will do anything they can to win 50/50 balls, which shifts the overall momentum of the game. KU has to make sure to hustle to rebounds while getting back in transition when missing out on hustle plays for loose balls.
Game Prediction
KU comes in after a grind-it-out 75-72 victory over Texas Tech in Lubbock. It doesn’t get any easier against West Virginia.
Not only is WVU Coliseum one of the most hostile environments in the league — the Mountaineers are a tough, physical team. KU forward Jalen Wilson called them the “most physical team in the conference.” Kansas has lost six of its last nine games in Morgantown.
On top of that, Kansas has to deal with the famous West Virginia press. How KU plays against the press should decide the game. If the Jayhawks can move the ball up the court quickly, find weak spots in the press and not get tired out, Kansas should win this game. If the Jayhawks tire out and start turning the ball over, it’ll be a long day for the Jayhawks.
WVU has a relatively balanced offense that isn’t great at just one thing. The key for KU is forcing WVU to take more threes (the Mountaineers don’t average many) and limiting the team’s two tall bigs — Tre Mitchell and Jimmy Bell Jr. — from making their mark on offense.
Look for Kansas coach Bill Self to put forward KJ Adams on Mitchell. The undersized Adams has done a great job of limiting taller and offensively talented bigs like Mitchell and doesn’t require much help down in the block.
Though WVU is desperate for a Big 12 win, KU can pull it out here. Playing against Texas Tech on the road and ultimately winning is great preparation for any crunch-time minutes against the Mountaineers.
Kansas 77, West Virginia 68
Shreyas’ pick to cover the spread: Kansas (KU minus-1.5)
Shreyas’ season record: 5-1
Shreyas’ record against the spread: 4-2
Player to watch: Dajuan Harris
Harris comes in red-hot. The guard had a career-high 18 points in KU’s 69-67 win over Texas Tech on Tuesday. How Harris plays is the key to KU winning this game. Not only is Morgantown a hostile environment, but West Virginia puts constant pressure on teams with its famous press. With his veteran presence, Harris becomes vital. He can help KU limit mistakes caused by the press and calm his teammates down if the crowd becomes an issue. On the defensive end, he will most likely have the task of guarding Stevenson. If Harris can lead KU’s offense without too many turnovers and win his matchup, the Jayhawks should roll to victory.
