The key for KU hoops in Lubbock? It might just be a former Red Raider: Opponent breakdown
The Kansas men’s basketball team travels to Lubbock to face Big 12 conference foe Texas Tech on Tuesday at United Supermarkets Arena.
The teams last met in the Big 12 tournament final, with the Jayhawks winning 74-65 over the Red Raiders in Kansas City. Currently, Texas Tech is on a 29-game home winning streak.
The Red Raiders are coming off a 67-61 loss at TCU last Saturday in their conference opener. Last season, Texas Tech never lost back-to-back games under second-year coach Mark Adams.
The Red Raiders are a balanced team on both ends with a sharpshooting forward that the Jayhawks must keep an eye on.
Below is a scouting report and prediction of the game.
Tuesday’s game: Texas Tech vs. No. 3 Kansas
When/where: 8:00 p.m., United Supermarkets Arena (Lubbock, Texas)
TV/Streaming: ESPN2
Opponent’s record: 10-3, 0-1 Big 12
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 31
All statistics are from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and EvanMiya. KenPom stats only include Division I competition.
Texas Tech team Strengths
Efficient on offense: Texas Tech ranks seventh in effective field goal percentage (57.2) and tenth in two-point percentage (58.4). The Red Raiders do an excellent job shooting at the rim (71.9%), which ranks third in Division I.
Contact creators: Texas Tech does a terrific job drawing fouls. The Red Raiders rank 20th in free throw rate (41.4%). In fact, 20.4% of their total points are by free throws, which is 73rd in the nation.
Shifty hands: The Red Raiders rank 27th in steals per game (9.4) and 18th in steal percentage (13.1).
Texas Tech team Weaknesses
Careless with the ball: Texas Tech ranks 300th in turnovers per game (14.6). At times, the Red Raiders take ill-advised shots that lead to a high percentage of their shots getting blocked (9.6), ranking 223rd in the nation.
Struggles at the line: The Red Raiders do a great job of getting to the line but aren’t elite at cashing in. They shoot 71% from the line, which ranks 180th.
New faces: Mark Adams has a relatively new roster with only one starter returning. The team ranks 317th in minutes continuity percentage (19.2). Minutes continuity is determined by what percentage of a team’s minutes are played by the same player from last season.
PLAYER TO WATCH
6-foot-8 junior Kevin Obanor (No. 0)
+ Has scored 20+ points in three out of the last five games
+ Good rebounder for his size; averages 6.2 rebounds per game
+ Sharpshooter; he shoots 36% from 3.
- Not a great passer; averaging 1.2 assists per game
- Doesn’t protect the rim (0.1 blocks per game)
Tale of the Tape
Obanor has a quick trigger beyond the arc. Here Obanor got the ball beyond the three-point line, quickly squared up and canned the three. His high release point makes it difficult for opponents to contest shots and his quick trigger gets his shot off quickly. This is why the Jayhawks have to be diligent in tracking him and contesting shots on time.
Texas Tech loves to turn good defense into offense. Here, the Red Raiders got the steal and passed the ball up to guard De’Vion Harmon. Harmon opted for a behind-the-back pass to a trailing Obanor, who promptly dunked the ball. KU must take care of the ball and get back to limit fast-break points in order to win.
Game Prediction
KU comes in after surviving a 69-67 thriller against Oklahoma State. This game will test the Jayhawks in multiple ways.
Coming into an environment where the home team hasn’t lost in 29 games isn’t easy for any team, no matter how good of a team Kansas is.
Texas Tech plays its trademark “no middle defense.” It keeps ball handlers away from the middle of the court, funneling them to the sidelines and preventing easy looks at the rim. Last year, KU struggled against it and lost in Lubbock.
This season, the Jayhawks come in with one practice before the game, according to KU coach Bill Self. One practice should help, but KU will make mistakes. The battle between the Red Raiders’ defense vs. Kansas’ offense should be relatively even.
Ultimately, the game will come down to KU’s’ defense against Texas Tech. If the Jayhawks force the Red Raiders into taking a lot of threes, that’s a good sign. Texas Tech typically doesn’t shoot a lot of threes but shoots a decent percentage on the ones they do (36.7%). Still, the Red Raiders thrive at shooting at the rim, so KU has to do anything they can to prevent those shots.
Between the hostile environment and the matchups, this one is truly a coin flip. I think the crowd plays a factor late and, ultimately, the Red Raiders come away with the win.
Texas Tech 75, Kansas 71
Shreyas’season record: 5-0
Player to watch: Kevin McCullar
There’s a bit of a revenge game feel with McCullar in this contest — one way or another. The guard transferred from Texas Tech before this season, so he knows firsthand how difficult an environment United Supermarkets Arena is, not to mention the way the Red Raiders guard. Not only will his veteran presence be vital in a hostile environment, but he may have the tough task of defending athletic guard De’Vion Harmon. If McCullar can limit Harmon’s impact and give his usual offense, KU should have a good chance to come out of Lubbock with a victory.
This story was originally published January 3, 2023 at 7:00 AM.
