KU basketball opponent breakdown: Gradey Dick can help Jayhawks match up-tempo Tigers
The Kansas basketball team faces old foe Missouri on Saturday at Mizzou Arena in a historic rivalry that dates to 1907.
In their last meeting, in 2021, the Jayhawks blew out the Tigers 102-65 at Allen Fieldhouse. This time around, Missouri enters with a perfect 9-0 record under first-year coach Dennis Gates.
The Tigers are an offense-oriented team that has thrived playing with a high tempo. Missouri has five players averaging double figures in scoring, plus a matchup on the inside that could cause the Jayhawks some issues.
Below is a scouting report and prediction of the game.
Saturday’s game: No. 6 Kansas at Missouri
When/where: 4:15 P.M., Mizzou Arena
TV/Streaming: ESPN
Opponent’s record: 9-0
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 50
All statistics are from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and EvanMiya. KenPom stats only include Division I competition.
Missouri team strengths
High-powered offense: Nationally, Missouri ranks third in effective field goal percentage (59%) and second in two-point percentage (63.2). The Tigers do an excellent job shooting at the rim (75.6%), which leads Division I. They average 93 points per game, which is first in the nation.
Forcing turnovers: The Tigers average 14.1 steals per game, which leads the nation. Often, those steals are the catalyst for their fast tempo. MU ranks fourth in adjusted tempo, which accounts for the opponent.
Highly Experienced: Missouri’s roster is filled with college basketball veterans with an average of just over three years playing Division I, which ranks 15th overall. In fact, their typical startling lineup features no players younger than seniors.
Missouri team weaknesses
Weak opposition: Despite their 9-0 record, Missouri has had one of the easiest schedules in the nation to this point. Their strength of schedule is ranked 361st.
No freebies: The Tigers struggle to get to the free throw line. They rank 321st in offensive free throw rate (23.9%). Just 13.4% of their total points are by free throws, which is 339th in the nation.
Struggle to defend from deep: Missouri ranks 254th in opposing 3-point percentage (35.4).
Player to watch
6-foot-8 senior forward Kobe Brown (No. 24)
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+ Highly efficient scorer (63.9% FG this season), including shooting 85.7% at the rim
+ Has scored double-digit points in three of his last four games
+ Good rebounder, especially for his size (averages 5.8 rebounds per game)
- Brown is undersized. He has averaged less than a block per game in his four seasons (.9 blocks this season)
- Inconsistent from beyond the arc. So far this season, Brown is shooting 36.8% from 3, but in his three previous seasons, he’s averaged 23.6%.
Tale of the Tape
The Tigers are among the best in the nation at two things: efficiency around the rim and stealing the basketball. In this clip, Missouri guard Tre Gomillion quickly finds an opening for an easy layup with the paint unprotected. Then, guard Sean East II steals a careless inbounds pass, which leads to a three-pointer by Nick Honor. This older Missouri team thrives off careless play, so KU has to be vigilant in protecting the ball.
The Tigers’ ability to rack up steals lets them control the pace of most games. You can see how quickly they run as soon as they get the ball in this clip. Running allows them to catch defenses off guard and score easy points. Here, you can see they force back-to-back turnovers, and that’s how games get out of hand quickly. The key for the Jayhawks will be to force this MU team to play in the halfcourt as it’ll let KU dictate the pace and overall flow of the game.
Game prediction
KU comes in the healthiest it has been in quite some time. The Jayhawks will finally get some key bench players back, including backup point guard Bobby Pettiford (hamstring) and super-senior forward Cam Martin, who has missed all nine games so far with a shoulder injury.
Kansas comes off a nine-day absence in between games. KU last played on December 1, when the Jayhawks defeated Seton Hall 91-65.
Both teams are undersized, but that is where the similarities end. KU has a primary scorer in forward Jalen Wilson (averaging 21.9 points per game) while Missouri tends to spread the wealth with seven players averaging nine points or more per contest. In addition, MU has an older team filled with six transfers (all seniors or older), while KU has a good mix of all ages in its rotation.
It’ll be interesting to see how Kansas deals with the Tigers’ very fast pace. Initially, it might be an issue, but the Jayhawks should adjust as the game progresses. This matchup is an interesting one because while MU has a statistically prolific offense, the Tigers have played no school even close to the caliber of Kansas.
Pay special attention to the Jayhawks’ defense in the paint. If Kansas can limit Missouri’s paint points and force them to take jumpers (MU shoots 39.2% on 2-point jumpers, which ranks 104th), then KU should win easily.
Give me Kansas for the win.
Kansas 85, Missouri 78
Shreyas’ season record: 1-0
Player to Watch: Gradey Dick
Dick, a sharpshooting guard, should be pivotal for this game. Missouri struggles to defend from beyond the arc, while Dick is one of the best shooters in the nation (45.3%), so look for him to have opportunities to shoot open threes. The freshman averages almost six three-pointers per game and doesn’t need much space to get his shot off, so he could be lethal against this MU team. If Dick can make his presence known from beyond the arc early, it will be a long game for the Tigers.
This story was originally published December 9, 2022 at 12:40 PM.
