Prediction(s) for Kansas Jayhawks vs. North Carolina in NCAA championship: Quick Scout
Before every KU men’s basketball game, Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Monday’s game: East No. 8 seed North Carolina vs. Midwest No. 1 seed Kansas, 8:20 p.m., Superdome, New Orleans
TV: TBS
Opponent’s record: 29-9
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 16
Point spread: Kansas by 4 1/2.
All statistics are from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 STRENGTHS
• Three-point shooting: North Carolina shoots slightly more three-pointers than an average NCAA team but is efficient in those scenarios, making 36% of its perimeter shots; three starters (Brady Manek, Caleb Love, RJ Davis) are at 37% or above while clipping off at least 175 long-range tries this season.
• Rebounding ... both ends: This Roy Williams coaching staple hasn’t left the Tar Heels in Hubert Davis’ first season, as the team is second nationally in defensive rebounding percentage and 74th in offensive board rate.
• Shot volume: North Carolina gets a shot on most possessions, posting the 52nd-best offensive turnover rate after significantly improving that mark over the last four weeks.
3 WEAKNESSES
• Transition defense: North Carolina’s defense is below NCAA average in allowing transition opportunities and adjusted field-goal percentage against when opponents get those fast-break tries.
• Two-point shot selection: The Tar Heels aren’t a great interior scoring team — they ranked ninth in ACC play in two-point percentage — and guard Caleb Love, in particular, can be coaxed into inefficient shots while making just 39% of his frequent two-point attempts this season.
• Creating havoc: Much like KU’s previous NCAA opponent Providence (as discussed in the video below), North Carolina plays a passive defensive style with drop coverage on ball screens, which is partly why the team ranks 356th in defensive turnover rate.
PLAYER TO WATCH
6-foot-9 forward Brady Manek (No. 45)
Plus: Four-year starter at Oklahoma
Plus: Has averaged 20 points in five NCAA Tournament games this season while making 19 of 40 threes (48%)
Plus: Three-point sharp-shooter with quick release
Plus: Outstanding scorer in transition settings
Plus: Strong finisher at the rim, especially after grabbing offensive rebounds
Plus: Rarely turns it over
Minus: Not a ball-handler; Synergy has him with only four possessions in pick-and-roll settings this season and three in isolation
Minus: Has been inefficient in post-up situations offensively
Minus: Struggles to fight through screens to get to shooters defensively
PREDICTION
Our Taylor Eldridge once again is a big help for the Quick Scout, as he broke down one of the most significant factors in this one: How transition will play out for the Jayhawks against the Tar Heels. Give it a read if you haven’t yet.
Start with this: KU is in an enviable position. For the sixth straight game, it is a four-plus-point favorite in this NCAA Tournament, with projection systems indicating the Jayhawks are somewhere between 65-70% likely to defeat North Carolina and win the national championship.
As mentioned in this space before, though ... 65-70% is not 100%. KU has some margin for error because it’s the better team, yet in a 40-minute sample, enough random stuff can happen where the Tar Heels won’t need much of a bump to make this a coin-flip-type game.
For KU, this will be a toughness test. Rebounding will be a significant factor Monday, and the Jayhawks have been a mixed bag against elite rebounding teams this season. For example, KU previously crushed it on the boards in a home blowout against Baylor but also was out-toughed in a similar-type matchup in a road loss to Texas Tech.
Defensive rebounds are so critical because they have a double-positive effect for KU. Not only does that end North Carolina’s possession, but it potentially leads to good things the other way, as the Tar Heels have done an awful job getting back this year. Add in that KU has one of the nation’s most dynamic transition offenses, and it’s easy to see why battling for each North Carolina miss could potentially create four- or five-point swings.
The Jayhawks appeared to play much freer against Villanova in the national semifinal on Saturday, and while that’s not guaranteed to continue, it’s at least a one-game sample showing the team might feel more relaxed after reaching the Final Four.
One number to watch closely to gauge KU’s nervousness will be turnovers. North Carolina does nothing to force them, so if the Jayhawks get around 10 giveaways in the first half, you’ll know something has gone awry offensively for Bill Self’s squad.
Overall, though, I don’t think Vegas is giving KU enough respect in this spot.
North Carolina has been excellent offensively lately, but it appeared to shoot a bit over its head against Duke. And while KU has had ball-screen defensive issues in the past, I feel more confident the Jayhawks can manage those at this point in the season considering their scouting-report attention to detail over the last few weeks.
KU should get plenty of shots up against North Carolina, with the Tar Heels trying to force the Jayhawks into contested mid-range jumpers. Transition defense is rightfully a massive concern for Davis, though, especially as quickly as KU’s guards get down the court.
Sometimes I feel like public bettors place wagers with their hearts. It’d be fun to see a close national championship game, especially with as entertaining of a tournament as it’s been.
I don’t think we’ll get that here, though. The Jayhawks have been the better of these two teams over the last six months, and they’ll just need to be themselves to cut down the nets late Monday night.
My prediction is we’ll see just that. Give me KU for the win and cover.
Kansas 78, North Carolina 68
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas
HAWK TO ROCK
KU could have some post-up success, too — North Carolina center Armando Bacot isn’t as effective with interior defense as one might expect — but this has the chance to be a memorable night for Ochai Agbaji. The senior guard is KU’s greatest weapon in transition settings, and the Jayhawks should have plenty of those opportunities in an up-tempo affair. If this goes as I expect, Agbaji will end his KU career as the NCAA Tournament’s Most Outstanding Player.
Last game prediction: Kansas 65, Villanova 64 (Actual: KU 81-65) ❌
2021-22 record vs. spread: 18-21
Last eight seasons’ record vs. spread: 148-126-3 (54%)
