Kansas Jayhawks vs. Villanova Wildcats has this recent betting trend: Quick Scout
Before every KU men’s basketball game, Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Saturday’s game: South No. 2 seed Villanova vs. Midwest No. 1 seed Kansas, 5:09 p.m., Superdome, New Orleans
TV: TBS
Opponent’s record: 30-7
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 9
Point spread: Kansas by 4.
All statistics are from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 STRENGTHS
• Free-throw shooting: Villanova, which gets to the line about an average amount, is on the verge of setting a Division I record for free-throw accuracy at 83%.
• Shot volume: Coach Jay Wright has made this a staple of his program; the Wildcats have the 29th-lowest turnover rate offensively, and they’ve ranked at least top 75 each of the last eight seasons.
• Foul avoidance: Villanova plays with physicality defensively while evading whistles, posting the country’s 46th-lowest defensive free-throw rate.
3 WEAKNESSES
• Transition offense: Villanova plays super-slow offensively, ranking 340th in transition opportunities created.
• Transition defense: The Wildcats haven’t always been great at getting back, as opponents get 25% of their shots on fast breaks — the 47th-highest mark for any defense nationally.
• Depth: Villanova already played with a tight rotation, and that was before losing guard Justin Moore (34 minutes per game) to a season-ending Achilles injury.
PLAYER TO WATCH
6-foot-3 guard Collin Gillespie (No. 2)
Plus: Big East player of the year
Plus: One of nation’s most efficient guards in post-up settings
Plus: High-volume, accurate three-point shooter
Plus: Solid passer
Plus: Has made 91% of free throws this season
Plus: Does excellent job with ball security given how often he has it in his hands
Minus: Synergy’s numbers indicate he’s not great defensively
Minus: Poor shooter in transition settings
Minus: Not a volume scorer inside; has attempted 63% of field goals from three-point range and is below NCAA average in two-point accuracy (47%)
PREDICTION
This section will be shorter than usual, because I had plenty of help analyzing this matchup.
Our Taylor Eldridge broke down the biggest key for KU defensively against Villanova, so check that story out before going any further.
Like its NCAA game against Creighton, KU will benefit from facing a thin team that lost one of its best players to injury.
Moore being out harms Villanova more than it would most programs, simply because Wright rarely goes to his bench. The team numbers at EvanMiya.com, for example, moved the Wildcats from sixth to 12th, and in all likelihood, that bad break shifted the Vegas line about three points in KU’s favor.
It doesn’t mean this one will be leisurely. As a four-point favorite, KU would be expected to win this game about 65% of the time, meaning the Wildcats still have way better than a puncher’s chance of pulling off a mini-upset.
The history here is fascinating as well. According to the database at Odds Shark, Wright is 7-1 against the spread (ATS) vs. Coach Bill Self when Villanova has faced KU, with his only ATS loss coming in the 2008 NCAA Tournament.
It’s a long way of saying: Even when KU has been favored, it hasn’t usually had an easy time with Villanova’s Wright, who, along with Self, is viewed as one of the best in-game tacticians in college basketball.
I sense this one will be close. Self has the better team, but Wright is likely to have his guys playing freely.
I’ll take KU for the close-game win, while giving the cover to ‘Nova.
Kansas 65, Villanova 64
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Villanova
HAWK TO ROCK
Villanova has some issues getting back in transition and allows a high number of threes. If Ochai Agbaji can take a deep breath now that KU has made the Final Four, he’s got the best matchup against a defense that will have trouble containing what he does best. Even in a low-possession, low-scoring contest, Agbaji could have a shot at 20 points — a mark he hasn’t hit in his last eight games.
Last game prediction: Kansas 83, Miami 71 (Actual: KU 76-50) ✔️
2021-22 record vs. spread: 18-20
Last eight seasons’ record vs. spread: 148-125-3 (54%)
