Miami Hurricanes basketball resembles a ghost from Kansas Jayhawks’ past: Quick Scout
Before every KU men’s basketball game, Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Sunday’s game: No. 10 seed Miami (Florida) vs. No. 1 seed Kansas, 1:20 p.m., United Center, Chicago
TV: CBS
Opponent’s record: 26-10
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 35
Point spread: Kansas by 6.
All statistics are from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 STRENGTHS
• ‘Scramble’ defense: Miami loves to pressure defensively with double-teams and traps under coach Jim Larranaga, ranking ninth nationally in steal rate and 53rd in defensive turnover percentage.
• Shot volume: The Hurricanes get a shot almost every possession, posting the nation’s sixth-lowest offensive turnover rate.
• Transition scoring: Miami gets fast-break attempts right around NCAA average, yet it’s dynamic when it gets those chances, ranking first nationally in transition efficiency according to Synergy.
3 WEAKNESSES
• Rebounding ... both ends: Part of Larranaga’s “scramble” defensive style is to make up for what he knows will be a challenge on the defensive boards; Miami is 271st in defensive board percentage and also mostly abandons the offensive glass.
• Transition defense: The Hurricanes are below average in surrendering fast-break opportunities and holding down shooting percentages in those scenarios.
• Allowing easy shots: Get through the initial wave of pressure with good passing, and Miami is vulnerable on the back end of its defense; the team posts poor defensive numbers when it comes to defending threes and restricting shots at the rim.
PLAYER TO WATCH
5-foot-11 guard Charlie Moore (No. 3)
Plus: Former KU player who was reserve for 2018-19 team
Plus: EvanMiya.com’s rating system ranks him as most valuable Hurricane this season
Plus: High-volume, accurate three-point shooter
Plus: Excellent passer
Plus: Disruptive defender with pressure who leads team in steal rate
Plus: Above-average finisher at rim, which might surprise some given his size
Minus: Non-physical player offensively who rarely gets to free-throw line
Minus: Not a playmaker in isolation settings; much better in transition or with ball screens
Minus: Below-average shooter in mid-range
PREDICTION
As I was starting to research Miami’s tendencies (pressuring defensive team that will fire up shots and force opponents to make open threes), it all started to sound similar to another squad KU had played in the NCAA Tournament under coach Bill Self.
Those suspicions were confirmed a few clicks later.
Bart Torvik’s site has a “similar efficiency profile” page where you can compare college basketball teams’ overall statistical tendencies to see who they’re most like from the past, going back to the 2007-08 season.
There have been around 5,200 college basketball team seasons since that point.
And the 10th-most comparable team to this year’s Miami Hurricanes? That would be the 2010-11 VCU Rams ... who defeated Self’s Jayhawks in the 2011 Elite Eight as a double-digit seed.
Can’t make this stuff up.
KU fans old enough to remember that game should understand what the Jayhawks need to do Sunday to advance to the Final Four.
Self’s team will need to handle the defensive tension created by Miami, with a potential shift to two-point-guard lineups as an important weapon. The Jayhawks will need to make at least some of the open threes they get (they were 2-for-21 from the perimeter in that VCU game), and they’ll need to play with a much freer mind than they did in previous contests this tourney against Creighton and Providence.
Speaking of Creighton, Self will likely have to monitor his 5-man situation closely. David McCormack could have a monster game — Miami should have no answer for him in the post or on the glass — but he also has the worst kind of defensive matchup while going against Miami 5-man Sam Waardenburg. The 6-foot-10 Waardenburg will set screens and then pop to the perimeter, and that’s an area McCormack struggles to defend if the opposing team’s big man gains shooting confidence.
KU should have transition opportunities. And the Jayhawks have done a decent job beating pressure this year, so that might not be the same concern as other past seasons.
Offensively, though, Miami is good. Moore is the catalyst, and the Hurricanes’ low-turnover, space-it-out ways are a challenging guard that puts immense strain on each defender.
However we want to dissect it all, though, this remains the reality: KU is a six-point favorite in an Elite Eight game. Vegas would roughly put KU’s chances at 70% to win, and while 70% isn’t 100% ... that remains an enviable position for any team hoping to advance to a Final Four.
KU has looked so tight the last two games, and playing a completely-free, put-stress-on-you opponent like Miami will present challenges if the Jayhawks can’t find a way to relax more in this weighty setting.
Much like baseball’s momentum can shift with a new day’s starting pitcher, though, it feels like a few shots going down could do wonders for the KU’s overall level of play.
It’s hard to predict if that’ll happen before the fact ... but it’ll probably occur sometime, right?
I’ll say the breakthrough for KU comes here. Give me the Jayhawks for both the win and cover.
Kansas 83, Miami 71
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas
HAWK TO ROCK
It’s difficult to bet against Remy Martin considering his NCAA Tournament to this point, and he should play a huge factor in determining KU’s offensive success against Miami. Iowa State had some half-court success by splitting Moore and Waardenburg on ball screens, and that’s the type of playmaking that Martin has thrived with the last two weeks. Martin could also be in line for a big assist game, as Miami’s gambling style often results in opposing guards breaking through to find open spot-up shooters. Martin’s season-high for assists with KU has been five, and I predict he’ll surpass that Sunday.
Last game prediction: Kansas 74, Providence 62 (Actual: KU 66-61) ❌
2021-22 record vs. spread: 17-20
Last eight seasons’ record vs. spread: 147-125-3 (54%)
This story was originally published March 27, 2022 at 5:00 AM.
