Two true statements about Kansas Jayhawks basketball vs. Providence Friars: Quick Scout
Before every KU men’s basketball game, Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Friday’s game: No. 4 seed Providence vs. No. 1 seed Kansas, 6:29 p.m., United Center, Chicago
TV: TBS
Opponent’s record: 27-5
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 32
Point spread: Kansas by 7 1/2.
All statistics are from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 STRENGTHS
• ‘Try hard’ stats: Providence has been great in offensive rebounding percentage (99th nationally) and offensive free-throw rate (28th), and those are typically two stats that indicate excellent effort.
• Half-court, first-shot defense: The Friars have been an elite defense when set, restricting threes well and forcing opponents into difficult two-point attempts.
• Off-ball actions to create shots: As described in the video below, Providence is one of the nation’s best using off-screen actions to produce open shots, ranking in Synergy’s 85th percentile on that specific play type.
3 WEAKNESSES
• Transition defense: Providence’s offensive rebounding emphasis is partially to blame for its biggest defensive weakness, as it has struggled to get back on defense; the Friars’ defense is below average when it comes to allowing transition opportunities and adjusted shooting percentage allowed in those scenarios.
• Individual shot creation: The Friars’ guards — in general — struggle to score at the rim, and the team as a whole has been inefficient in isolation settings and when settling for shots off the dribble.
• Defensive havoc: As described below, Providence is more of a positional defensive team that tries to force bad shots instead of playing aggressively; as a result, the team is 306th in steal rate and 322nd in defensive turnover percentage.
PLAYER TO WATCH
6-foot-8 forward Noah Horchler (No. 14)
Plus: EvanMiya.com’s rating system ranks him as second-most valuable Friar this season
Plus: Scored 16 points with 4-for-6 three-point shooting in Providence’s Round of 32 win over Richmond
Plus: Outstanding three-point shooter (41% for season; 38% for career)
Plus: Thrives shooting off screens, where he’s in 92nd percentile nationally via Synergy
Plus: Excellent defensive rebounder
Plus: Has blocked some shots and can hold his own against shorter players defensively
Minus: More of a role player offensively than a go-to guy
Minus: Strictly a spot-up shooter off passes; has only attempted five field goals off dribble all season
Minus: Has been foul prone in March games with at least three whistles in all five contests
PREDICTION
Two things can be true at the same time.
1. KU getting Providence in the Sweet 16 is a fortunate draw. For the season, the Friars’ underlying numbers do not reflect those of a typical top-four-seeded team, and while close-game victories are great — and coach Ed Cooley shouldn’t apologize for wins — the bottom line is that Vegas putting this line at 7 1/2 points means that KU has clearly shown itself to be the better team in 2021-22.
However ...
2. Providence can absolutely win. The implied odds from the sports betting line would give the Friars about a 25% chance of winning Friday ... and 25% is certainly not 0%.
If you grab a friend and flip a coin twice, your buddy has a 25% of getting both guesses on those two tosses right. Just as it’s far from impossible to have two correct picks in a row, it’d be silly at best to rule out this Friars team in a small-sample, 40-minute scenario.
KU, though, has some margin for error. Like the Creighton contest, it can have some shaky moments — or some opponent shooting variance — and still have wiggle room to recover and pull out a win, which is a luxury not usually available in second-weekend contests.
Offensively, KU needs to run at all opportunities. Getting easy points in transition not only is this team’s greatest strength, but it also potentially could help loosen a team that has often looked tight in the first two NCAA rounds.
In the half-court, the Jayhawks need to keep the floor spaced, which will help both Remy Martin and Ochai Agbaji from finding a crowded house in ball-screen scenarios. Martin, in particular, is comfortable in chaos, but there’s also a fine line between remaining aggressive and settling for the types of mid-range jumpers that Providence wants him to take.
Defensively, KU’s top objective needs to be remaining locked in on switches. Providence killed Richmond with set-shot threes curling off screens, and if KU can discourage those attempts, the Friars are likely to struggle in late-clock scenarios when their guards might have to do too much.
The biggest concern I see for KU, honestly, is nerves. The Jayhawks didn’t always look like themselves last week while seeming to feel some pressure, and that tension could still linger as the favorite to advance in this one.
Basketball-wise, though? I like KU’s chances to score in transition and think it can succeed defensively against a Providence team that will need the Jayhawks to make some switching mistakes to be at its best.
If KU commits to locking in on that end — like it mostly has the last two weeks — I like the Jayhawks not only for a win but a comfortable one.
Give me KU for both the win and cover.
Kansas 74, Providence 62
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas
HAWK TO ROCK
The obvious answer remains the right one here. Ochai Agbaji is KU’s most efficient starter in transition, and if Martin creates as he has lately, Agbaji should be able to get at least a few openings for the types of half-court spot-up threes he’s thrived with all season. Agbaji has scored 20 or more points in just one of his six games, but I’ll say he gets there Friday.
Last game prediction: Kansas 80, Creighton 63 (Actual: KU 79-72) ❌
2021-22 record vs. spread: 17-19
Last eight seasons’ record vs. spread: 147-124-3 (54%)
This story was originally published March 25, 2022 at 5:00 AM.
