Why one risky tactic could dramatically change Kansas-Creighton matchup: Quick Scout
Before every KU men’s basketball game, Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Saturday’s game: No. 9 seed Creighton vs. No. 1 seed Kansas, Approximately 1:40 p.m., Dickies Arena, Fort Worth, Texas
TV: CBS
Opponent’s record: 23-11
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 52
Point spread: Kansas by 11 1/2.
All statistics are from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 STRENGTHS
• Forcing tough twos: Creighton’s defense loves to funnel to mid-range, as opponents attempt 35% of their field goals from that inefficient area — the 24th-highest mark for any defense nationally.
• Close shots: The Bluejays do an above-average job of creating shots at the rim through transition, cuts and offensive rebounding, and they’re efficient there too, making 64% of those close attempts (43rd nationally).
• Foul avoidance: Creighton is super-thin on depth but manages that well thanks to a non-physical style defensively; the team has the fourth-lowest defensive free-throw rate nationally, which means Kansas should not be banking on lots of points from the charity stripe.
3 WEAKNESSES
• Injuries: Creighton lost starting guard Ryan Nembhard to a season-ending wrist injury last month, and then on Thursday, the team’s best player — 7-foot-1 center Ryan Kalkbrenner — also suffered a knee injury that will keep him out the remainder of the NCAA Tournament.
• Depth: The Bluejays rank 317th in bench minutes, which makes Kalkbrenner’s absence a potentially critical blow; the team played only seven guys in Thursday’s overtime win over San Diego State, and that was with Kalkbrenner getting 40 minutes before he left with injury.
• Turnovers ... both ends: Creighton plays positional defense — ranking 284th in steal rate and 322nd in defensive turnover rate — while also being hampered this season by carelessness on the offensive end (312th in offensive turnover percentage).
PLAYER TO WATCH
6-foot-7 forward Ryan Hawkins (No. 44)
Plus: Most Outstanding Player in Elite Eight for Division II Northwest Missouri State in Bearcats’ national title run last season
Plus: High-volume three-point shooter who’s made 35% this season
Plus: Solid defensive rebounder
Plus: Good shooter at the rim who can create shots for himself there
Plus: Rarely fouls
Plus: Seldom comes out of game
Minus: Not a strong post defender
Minus: Non-physical player offensively; rarely gets to free-throw line
Minus: More scorer than distributor; has four combined assists in last five contests
PREDICTION
This is a tough matchup to read because Kalkbrenner’s injury changes Creighton’s entire makeup.
The center was more than the Bluejays’ best player; he also was the guy that coach Greg McDermott built his entire defensive scheme around. In this biggest game of the season, McDermott will be forced to guide his team toward playing a completely different style without Kalkbrenner’s rim protection inside.
If you want a comparison: Think about how much KU coach Bill Self works on his man-to-man defense. Now, imagine telling him he could only play zone in the NCAA Tournament.
That’s the type of challenge McDermott is facing. Creighton will likely have to change its ball-screen coverage to a more aggressive mode with Keyshawn Feazell playing the 5, as he’s not the type of anchor in there who can restrict rim attempts like Kalkbrenner could.
It makes me think McDermott — he’s played Feazell double-digit minutes just three of the last 17 contests — might primarily go to a different Hail Mary altogether.
The 6-foot-7 Hawkins, in any normal circumstances, should not be playing the 5 for Creighton. In these desperate times, though, McDermott could consider it, banking on the fact that Hawkins’ ability to shoot threes could give KU’s David McCormack issues on the perimeter, while perhaps being advantageous enough to make up for the disaster matchup it’d be for the Bluejays on the other end.
This also would allow McDermott to get guard Rati Andronikashvili — someone he’s trusted more than Feazell lately — on the court for more extended minutes than if Creighton committed to always playing a true big.
It would be risky. McDermott would be relying on an excellent three-point shooting contest ... and this is the worst outside shooting team in his 12 seasons with the school (30%). There also would be frustrations defensively, as Creighton can’t afford any fouls with its depth issues, meaning there isn’t likely to be much resistance for KU’s big men posting up or at the rim. KU’s offensive rebounding could be a problem as well.
The 11 1/2-point line is higher than I expected, and typically, one player out with injury only affects a team about a point or two.
After studying Creighton, though, I think the loss of Kalkbrenner — combined with Creighton’s thin bench — makes a more significant penalty warranted here.
McDermott knows he’s in a difficult spot and that things will have to fall well for his team to keep it close.
I don’t see it happening. Even with an inflated line, I think KU will take advantage of this wounded version of Creighton, getting easy baskets that wouldn’t have been available had the Bluejays been at full strength.
Give me KU for the win and cover.
Kansas 80, Creighton 63
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas
HAWK TO ROCK
It’s hard to think of a better potential offensive matchup for David McCormack. He’ll start by going against a backup 5 man and then potentially could go against a small-ball 5 after that. He’s also facing a team that does not create many whistles offensively (meaning he’s unlikely to be in foul trouble) and has a coach in Self who demands getting his big man touches in situations like this. This might not be a big free-throw game for McCormack — Creighton doesn’t and can’t foul because of its delicate roster situation — but that also means KU’s 6-foot-10 forward should face less shot-blocking opposition at the rim. McCormack’s season-high for points was 22 on Senior Night versus Texas, and he should have a great chance of topping that total Saturday.
Last game prediction: Kansas 89, Texas Southern 59 (Actual: KU 83-56) ✔️
2021-22 record vs. spread: 17-18
Last eight seasons’ record vs. spread: 147-123-3 (54%)
