Here’s the Kansas Jayhawks player with a dream matchup vs. Texas Southern: Quick Scout
Before every KU men’s basketball game, Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Thursday’s game: No. 16 seed Texas Southern vs. No. 1 seed Kansas, Approximately 8:57 p.m., Dickies Arena, Fort Worth, Texas
TV: truTV
Opponent’s record: 19-12
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 183
Point spread: Kansas by 21 1/2.
All statistics are from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 STRENGTHS
• Depth: Texas Southern ranks No. 1 nationally in bench minutes percentage while using a true 10-man rotation.
• Try-hard stats offensively: The Tigers are excellent in both offensive rebounding percentage (32nd) and free-throw rate (77th), and both of those are often the product of a team playing with effort and toughness.
• Rim protection: Texas Southern is 24th in block rate, and overall, it also has held opponents to 45% two-point shooting (18th nationally).
3 WEAKNESSES
• Carelessness: Coach Johnny Jones’ team turned it over a lot against a weak schedule, ranking 329th in offensive turnover rate.
• Getting back: Texas Southern allowed opponents a higher-than-average number of transition opportunities while ranking 177th in adjusted field-goal percentage against those scenarios.
• Three-point shooting: The Tigers barely attempted threes this season, and the rare times they did, they only made 32% (275th nationally).
PLAYER TO WATCH
6-foot-9 forward Brison Gresham (No. 44)
Plus: Started 19 games last season for Final Four team Houston
Plus: Elite shot-blocker
Plus: Excellent rebounder, both ends
Plus: Outstanding finisher on close shots
Plus: Gets to free-throw line decent amount and has improved accuracy to 71% there this season
Plus: Can make mid-range jumpers
Minus: Plays limited minutes because of Texas Southern’s substitution patterns
Minus: Fouls a lot
Minus: Has been turnover prone
PREDICTION
After starting 6-15 against the spread, Quick Scout’s late-season surge means a chance to get back up to .500 with two correct picks this week.
This one, on paper at least, seems like a drastic mismatch.
Texas Southern is the worst of the 16 seeds left, according to KenPom, and ShotQuality’s advanced numbers like the Tigers even less than that.
It’s not difficult to see what the underlying stats are suggesting. Texas Southern played in the SWAC — ranked 32nd out of 32 conferences, via KenPom — and five of its league victories there came in one-possession games or overtime.
That’s typically not a recipe for a squad potentially able to punch above its weight against a 1 seed like Kansas.
All that isn’t even taking into account the difficult circumstances either. Because the SWAC Tournament was just last week, Texas Southern will be playing its fifth game in nine days, with the last three contests taking place in Birmingham, Alabama; Dayton, Ohio; and Fort Worth, Texas.
Whew.
Texas Southern would prefer this to be a physical affair. It’s a good rebounding team — especially on the offensive end — and it typically fares well in the grit-type statistics. Defensively, the Tigers limit threes well and fly around in the paint during half-court settings, with those attributes especially playing up against SWAC competition.
The biggest issue for Texas Southern is turnovers. Its giveaway total is egregiously high for a team playing the competition it does, and that also directly hampers the defense, which can’t get set if the opponent is running in transition. The Tigers also don’t make threes well, which severely caps the potential upside you might expect from a 16 seed that needs some crazy things to go right to have a chance at an upset.
For KU, this will be all about speeding up Texas Southern. The Jayhawks would be wise to utilize their two-small-guard lineup combos to increase the ball pressure, with every Tigers’ mistake offensively likely to end up as two points the other way.
Though it’s always possible for KU to deal with first-NCAA-game nerves, that tends to subside if a team can get a few easy baskets early. Texas Southern should provide plenty of chances for those, which means the Jayhawks have a decent chance at a comfortable start.
In the end, I think KU runs away with this one ... literally. The Jayhawks’ easy points in transition should break this one open, giving plenty of cushion for both the win and cover.
Kansas 89, Texas Southern 59
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas
HAWK TO ROCK
He doesn’t get put in this spot often, but Dajuan Harris has a dream matchup against an opponent that will hand the ball away if pressured. Harris leads KU in steal rate, but even with that, his season-high for swipes this season is four. So here’s my bold prediction: I’ll say Harris gets four steals in the first half alone against Texas Southern on Thursday.
Last game prediction: Kansas 68, Texas Tech 64 (Actual: KU 74-65) ✔️
2021-22 record vs. spread: 16-18
Last eight seasons’ record vs. spread: 146-123-3 (54%)
This story was originally published March 17, 2022 at 5:00 AM.
