This Kansas Jayhawks basketball player set up for big game vs. Texas Tech: Quick Scout
Before every KU men’s basketball game, Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Saturday’s game: No. 14 Texas Tech vs. No. 6 Kansas, 5 p.m., T-Mobile Center, Kansas City, Missouri
TV: ESPN
Opponent’s record: 25-8
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 7
Point spread: Kansas by 1 1/2.
All statistics are from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 STRENGTHS
• Creating havoc: Texas Tech thrives in every method of creating takeaways defensively, ranking 10th in non-steal turnover percentage (charges go in this category) and 27th in steal rate.
• Interior defense: The Red Raiders ranked first in Big 12 play in two-point field-goal percentage defense and second in block percentage.
• Getting fouled: Texas Tech had the highest free-throw rate during league play, making a respectable 72% of those freebies then.
3 WEAKNESSES
• Three-point shooting: Like TCU, Texas Tech doesn’t attempt many perimeter shots and also isn’t accurate (32%, 277th nationally) when it does fire away from deep.
• Carelessness: The Red Raiders turn it over on 20% of their possessions — a mark that ranks 295th nationally.
• Three-point allowance: Opponents have shot 46% of their field-goal attempts against Texas Tech from three-point range, which is the 15th-highest split for any defense nationally.
PLAYER TO WATCH
6-foot-8 forward Bryson Williams (No. 11)
Plus: Earned All-Big 12 first-team honors
Plus: Has scored 23, 22 and 33 in three career games vs. KU
Plus: Strong outside shooter; 42% this season and 35% for career
Plus: Rarely turns it over
Plus: Efficient in post-up settings
Plus: Good free-throw shooter
Minus: Poor defensive rebounder for his size
Minus: Not an overly physical player offensively; gets to free-throw line below-average amount and mainly sets himself up to get to jump shot
PREDICTION
The advanced numbers suggest Texas Tech is playing much better than its No. 14 ranking in the AP poll.
KenPom has the Red Raiders up to seventh, while ShotQuality puts them at sixth. Both measures also say that Mark Adams’ group is the best defensive team in the nation.
This’ll be a tough one for KU. Texas Tech succeeds by loading up defensively to keep the ball on one side of the floor, then using opponents’ offensive hesitance against them to create turnovers. More often than not, semi-guarded threes are good shots against the Red Raiders, especially when considering the added benefit of a potential offensive rebound.
The Red Raiders don’t give up much in transition. And they have the athleticism to make up for mistakes with shot-blocking at multiple positions.
KU does hold a couple of small advantages. First, it will have more of a home-court advantage in Kansas City, and it also should be the fresher of the two teams; the Jayhawks played the earlier game Friday, and they also weren’t pushed by TCU the way that Texas Tech was by Oklahoma in the nightcap.
Coach Bill Self will have to find a defensive matchup for Bryson Williams. And KU’s leader also will probably have to live with looser shot selection, given the nature of Texas Tech’s defense.
I’ll give the slight edge to the Jayhawks here, though. Self historically has some close-game magic in these types of outings, and the Red Raiders also appear to be a team that’s received an oversized benefit from playing in Lubbock this season; perhaps that means a sorta-semi-neutral site kicks a point or two back KU’s way.
I don’t think Vegas is too far off here, but I still like KU for both the win and cover.
Kansas 68, Texas Tech 64
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas
HAWK TO ROCK
This is a big-game setup for Ochai Agbaji, as Texas Tech is more concerned defensively with its principles than it is individual players. If KU teammates can drive and kick, Agbaji should get high-quality attempts from three ... and he’s one of the best in the nation at knocking those down. A 25-plus-point effort — he’s had one in his last 13 outings — certainly isn’t out of the question.
Last game prediction: Kansas 77, TCU 65 (Actual: KU 75-62) ✔️
2021-22 record vs. spread: 15-18
Last eight seasons’ record vs. spread: 145-123-3 (54%)
This story was originally published March 12, 2022 at 5:00 AM.
