Why TCU Horned Frogs seen as ‘hard matchup’ for KU Jayhawks by Bill Self: Quick Scout
Before every KU men’s basketball game, Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Friday’s game: TCU vs. No. 6 Kansas, 6 p.m., T-Mobile Center, Kansas City, Missouri
TV: ESPN2
Opponent’s record: 20-11
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 37
Point spread: Kansas by 7 1/2.
All statistics are from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 STRENGTHS
• Second chances: TCU ranks second nationally in offensive rebounding rate.
• Three-point defense: The Horned Frogs do an excellent job of limiting opponents’ three-point attempts, and along with that, Big 12 foes also shot a below-average percentage (31%) against Jamie Dixon’s squad.
• Close ones: TCU gets 41% of its field-goal attempts at the rim — the 53rd-best mark nationally — while shooting better than a median NCAA team on those tries.
3 WEAKNESSES
• Three-point shooting: TCU doesn’t shoot many threes and has poor accuracy when attempting them (30%).
• Carelessness: The Horned Frogs turned it over on 23% of their possessions in Big 12 play — the worst mark in the conference.
• Defensive pressure: TCU was ninth in league play — and only ahead of KU — in both defensive turnover percentage and steal rate.
PLAYER TO WATCH
6-foot-11 center Eddie Lampkin (No. 4)
Plus: Had 10 points (on 5-for-6 shooting) with nine rebounds in TCU’s win Wednesday vs. Texas
Plus: Posted nine rebounds in both previous matchups against KU
Plus: Elite on offensive glass
Plus: Good scorer off cuts
Plus: Strong finisher at rim
Plus: Gets fouled often
Minus: Has struggled defensively when pulled away from basket
Minus: More of a secondary player offensively
Minus: Poor free-throw shooter (53% for career)
PREDICTION
After KU’s 72-68 home win over TCU last week, coach Bill Self declared the Horned Frogs were a “hard matchup” for his team because of their physicality and size at the guard and wing positions.
I don’t buy that playing out over three matchups, though. KU looked just fine in that game in building an 18-6 lead, but because of the circumstances, it couldn’t maintain energy while losing defensive intensity late.
That again will be a key for KU on Friday. TCU will turn it over when pressured, and those mistakes against KU often have the double-whammy of allowing the Jayhawks to run in transition, which is their greatest offensive strength.
The glass will be a struggle for KU, and TCU makes it difficult for any opponent when it can control tempo and play a half-court game.
For this one, though, I think the Jayhawks will do better with their running game. Look for steals, runouts and some easy baskets ... and for KU to finally get some separation against Dixon’s pesky team.
I’ll take KU for the win and cover.
Kansas 77, TCU 65
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas
HAWK TO ROCK
Christian Braun had 12 points on 4-for-4 shooting in KU’s last game against TCU, so teammates will likely be urging him to be more aggressive from the start. Braun is one of KU’s best in transition, which should be especially beneficial in this matchup. Look for him to post a well-rounded stat line Friday.
Last game prediction: Kansas 75, West Virginia 72 (Actual: KU 87-63) ❌
2021-22 record vs. spread: 14-18
Last eight seasons’ record vs. spread: 144-123-3 (54%)
