Why Kansas Jayhawks should expect improved West Virginia in Big 12 Tourney: Quick Scout
Before every KU men’s basketball game, Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Thursday’s game: West Virginia vs. No. 6 Kansas, 2 p.m., T-Mobile Center, Kansas City, Missouri
TV: ESPN
Opponent’s record: 16-16
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 68
Point spread: Kansas by 8 1/2.
All statistics are from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 STRENGTHS
• Drawing and making free throws: West Virginia ranks 54th nationally in offensive free-throw rate, and while the team is an above-average free-throw shooting team for the season, it has especially thrived there in Big 12 play while making 79% of its attempts.
• Creating havoc: The Mountaineers are 22nd nationally in defensive turnover rate while heating teams up in both half- and full-court settings.
• Ball security: West Virginia did an excellent job in the Big 12 season of getting up shots against pressuring defenses, posting the third-best offensive turnover rate in league play.
3 WEAKNESSES
• Close-shot accuracy: West Virginia has made 53% of its shots at the rim this season (341st nationally) and also struggled immensely in that area during a previous home loss to KU, going 4-for-19 then on combined layups, tip-ins and dunks.
• Transition defense: Opponents get 25% of their field goals on fast breaks against West Virginia — the 30th-highest mark for any defense — and foes also shoot a well-above-average adjusted shooting percentage in those scenarios as well.
• Defensive rebounding: The Mountaineers, who are fine on the offensive glass, have been dreadful on the other end, posting the 20th-worst defensive rebounding rate nationally.
PLAYER TO WATCH
6-foot-3 guard Sean McNeil (No. 22)
Plus: Led West Virginia with 21 points on 7-for-10 shooting in Wednesday’s 73-67 win over Kansas State
Plus: High-volume, accurate three-point shooter
Plus: Elite at free-throw line; made 93% in conference play
Plus: Rarely turns it over
Plus: Good shot-blocker
Plus: Strong shooter off the dribble
Minus: Has struggled to defend in pick-and-roll settings
Minus: Doesn’t get to line too often; creates for himself more as a jump-shooter than driver
PREDICTION
West Virginia looks like a much different team when it makes bunnies as it did against K-State on Wednesday.
The Mountaineers finished 22-for-37 from two — a far cry from their 10-for-38 inside effort in a 71-58 home loss to Kansas last month that seemed more attributable to a lousy shooting night than KU’s overall defense.
West Virginia is probably better on offense than most numbers indicate. Bob Huggins’ team doesn’t have many great three-point shooters outside of McNeil and has struggled with making close ones, yet it makes up for some of those flaws by doing a few difficult things well.
For one, West Virginia is an efficient team in isolation settings while trying to pick on weak defenders. It’s an excellent shooting team off the dribble, and it also fares well in the hustle stats like offensive rebounding and getting to the foul line.
I’m not sure Kansas’ top seed is much of an advantage here either. West Virginia was able to get its first-game jitters out of the way already, and with basically no pressure in the Big 12 Tournament, it also gets KU on a super-quick turnaround that allows little time for a detailed opposing scouting report.
The Jayhawks will have the fan advantage, but not as much as one might expect. KU supporters historically don’t make much noise at T-Mobile Center unless challenged by another fanbase, and that scenario seems unlikely in this particular game given West Virginia’s distance from home.
Don’t be surprised if this one comes down to the final minute. I’ll take KU for a close win, but like West Virginia for the cover.
Kansas 75, West Virginia 72
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: West Virginia
HAWK TO ROCK
Though foul trouble is a worry, David McCormack has too good a matchup to leave out of this spot. West Virginia struggles against post-ups and has been awful on the defensive glass, and that means McCormack should have opportunities both on the offensive boards and in half-court settings when coach Bill Self elects to play through him. McCormack just posted his first 20-point game of the season on Senior Night against Texas, and it wouldn’t be surprising if he comes close to that mark again Thursday.
Last game prediction: Kansas 70, Texas 61 (Actual: KU 70-63) ✔️
2021-22 record vs. spread: 14-17
Last eight seasons’ record vs. spread: 144-122-3 (54%)
This story was originally published March 10, 2022 at 5:00 AM.
