Here’s a bold forecast for one Kansas Jayhawks senior vs. Texas Longhorns: Quick Scout
Before every KU men’s basketball game, Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Saturday’s game: No. 21 Texas at No. 6 Kansas, 3 p.m., Allen Fieldhouse, Lawrence
TV: ESPN
Opponent’s record: 21-9
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 15
Point spread: Kansas by 6 1/2.
All statistics are from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 STRENGTHS
• Ball security: Texas has posted an 18% turnover rate in conference play — the second-best mark in the Big 12 and especially impressive given how many league defenses sell out to create turnovers.
• Getting back: The Longhorns only allow opponents to get 19% of their field-goal tries in transition, which ranks 14th-best among all defenses nationally.
• Defensive havoc: Texas is ninth in defensive turnover percentage and 26th in steal rate, though both of those numbers have tailed off significantly since conference play began.
3 WEAKNESSES
• Transition scoring: Texas is somewhat rare because it creates turnovers with its defense but rarely runs with those opportunities; only 18% of its shots come on fast breaks (321st nationally).
• Fouling: The Longhorns have the highest defensive free-throw rate in Big 12 play, and that’s a weakness that potentially can be particularly problematic at Allen Fieldhouse.
• Getting close shots: Texas has struggled to get opportunities at the rim, with only 32% of its tries coming from that location — the 46th-lowest total nationally.
PLAYER TO WATCH
6-foot-7 forward Christian Bishop (No. 32)
Plus: Elite offensive rebounder who had season-high seven O-boards in first matchup vs. KU
Plus: Excellent finisher at rim
Plus: Dangerous off cuts
Plus: Efficient overall player
Plus: Good shot-blocker
Plus: Gets to foul-line often, has improved accuracy there this season (71%)
Minus: Struggles to score away from rim; below-average in mid-range and has only attempted six threes
Minus: Has been turnover prone
PREDICTION
Texas defense deserves this compliment: It makes the easiest offense difficult.
The Longhorns get back in transition well. They do a great job of restricting threes, and they have some athleticism inside to give the threat of rim protection for any opponent entering the lane.
KU still found plenty of offensive success against Texas in the first matchup because of game plan. The Longhorns chose to face-guard Ochai Agbaji to get him out of rhythm, and while that held his point total down, it also led to bigger nights for guys like Christian Braun and Jalen Wilson on drives, as KU made 66% of its twos on its way to an impressive 1.10 points per possession.
However, the Jayhawks still lost because they couldn’t get key stops down the stretch. Texas center Tre Mitchell — the hero in that one — has left the team since, and in general, the Longhorns can struggle to get easy baskets needed to keep the team out of scoring droughts.
Allen Fieldhouse should be juiced with a Big 12 title on the line. KU has won 38 straight Senior Night games, and as mentioned above, Texas’ foul-happy ways could be a huge detriment in this type of atmosphere.
This historically has been the type of game that KU coach Bill Self always wins, and though Texas is talented, picking against the Jayhawks here is a leap I’m not going to make.
Will KU cover, though? This is the team’s fourth game in eight days, so fatigue could play a factor.
In the end, I think the spread is right on. Forced to pick, I’ll give the slight spread nod to KU, though I’m not overly convicted in taking that side.
Kansas 70, Texas 61
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas
HAWK TO ROCK
In his final home game, it’s a great matchup on paper for David McCormack, who goes against a Texas defense that fouls a lot and a defender in Bishop who is only so-so guarding post-ups. The Longhorns aren’t great on the defensive glass either, meaning their weaknesses match nearly every McCormack strength. McCormack hasn’t hit 20 points in any game this season, but I’ll say he gets there Saturday.
Last game prediction: Kansas 82, TCU 63 (Actual: KU 72-68) ❌
2021-22 record vs. spread: 13-17
Last eight seasons’ record vs. spread: 143-122-3 (54%)
