How Kansas Jayhawks basketball foe TCU makes up for its statistical sins: Quick Scout
Before every KU men’s basketball game, Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Tuesday’s game: No. 6 Kansas at TCU, 7 p.m., Schollmaier Arena, Fort Worth, Texas
TV/Streaming: ESPN+
Opponent’s record: 18-9
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 50
Point spread: Kansas by 5 1/2.
All statistics are from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 STRENGTHS
• Rebounding ... both ends: TCU ranks No. 2 nationally in offensive rebounding, and on the defensive end, it has posted the best D-board rate in the Big 12 during conference play.
• Three-point defense: The Horned Frogs do a great job of chasing opponents off the three-point line, and even with limited attempts, those teams have made just 31% of their perimeter shots.
• Challenging at the rim: TCU allows an above-average number of close shots, but it also contests those well, rejecting 13% of opponents’ attempts at the rim (68th nationally).
3 WEAKNESSES
• Three-point shooting: TCU barely takes threes, and when it does, it’s only made 30% of those (321st nationally); junior guard Francisco Farabello is the only rotation player above 35% accuracy on perimeter shots.
• Carelessness: The Horned Frogs have turned it over on 24% of their possessions in conference play, which is the worst mark in the league.
• Defensive pressure: TCU is the rare Big 12 team that hasn’t thrived by creating giveaways; it ranks ninth in league in defensive turnover percentage and steal rate, while only leading Kansas in those two categories.
PLAYER TO WATCH
6-foot-2 guard Mike Miles (No. 1)
Plus: Takes highest percentage of team’s shots
Plus: Strong passer
Plus: Right-handed shooter but Synergy’s numbers show he’s much more efficient driving left
Plus: Posts solid steal rate
Plus: Gets to foul line decent amount and is 77% career shooter there
Minus: Below-average three-point shooter; 29% this season and 33% for career
Minus: Poor finisher at the rim in half-court settings
Minus: Takes a lot of inefficient mid-range jumpers — especially off the dribble — and isn’t a great shooter from that location
PREDICTION
Quick Scout is now 7-0 against the spread over the last seven KU games. Hopefully, you’ve bet your mortgage at least once during the ride.
TCU, on paper, doesn’t appear to be that complicated. It tries really freakin’ hard while usually winning the rebounding stats, and it also attempts to grind everything into an inside battle where it has a chance to win a two-point contest.
Frankly, it’s impressive that the Horned Frogs have made up for so many deficiencies offensively. They turn it over like crazy, and in today’s college basketball, it’s rare for Power Five teams to be able to hang in there with almost no three-point shooting on the roster.
TCU’s ceiling, though, appears to be a bit capped for this exact reason. The best teams can score three at a time when needed, and especially if the Horned Frogs fall behind, they have a limited arsenal available.
The turnovers worry me for TCU too. KU has a dynamic transition offense, but it sometimes struggles to get those opportunities because of a lack of steals. The Horned Frogs, thus far, have been a team that throws it away too often, and even 5-7 of those possessions would be enough for the Jayhawks to bank somewhere around 10 free points.
Rebounding is the biggest concern for KU. This isn’t coach Bill Self’s biggest team, and if David McCormack happened to get in foul trouble, the Jayhawks would face a severe dropoff in board production from that 5 spot. I could see, if that happened, Self going through a merry-go-round of big men while searching for someone able to hold his ground inside.
TCU doesn’t draw too many whistles, though, and it’s not a team that throws it in the post much either. And if McCormack can stay in there, I like the Jayhawks quite a bit.
The Horned Frogs give strong help inside and are vulnerable to assisted baskets; though the Jayhawks lost their previous game at Baylor, they shared the ball well and created numerous open shots that they simply didn’t make.
That bodes well for both this game and the future. Combine recent KU’s half-court ball movement with its proficiency on fast breaks, and I think the team is due for an efficient game where it also should limit turnovers.
Give me the Jayhawks for the win and cover.
Kansas 78, TCU 66
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas
HAWK TO ROCK
TCU has had some issues defending cuts and transition, and Christian Braun ranks among KU’s best players in both those facets. Braun has only scored 20-plus points once in Big 12 play (after getting to that mark four times in non-conference), so let’s go bold here and say he gets to 20 again Tuesday.
Last game prediction: Baylor 76, Kansas 67 (Actual: Baylor 80-70) ✔️
2021-22 record vs. spread: 13-15
Last eight seasons’ record vs. spread: 143-120-3 (54%)
