This hobbled player key in Kansas Jayhawks-Baylor Bears basketball game: Quick Scout
Before every KU men’s basketball game, Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Saturday’s game: No. 5 Kansas at No. 10 Baylor, 7 p.m., Ferrell Center, Waco, Texas
TV: ESPN
Opponent’s record: 23-5
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 4
Point spread: Baylor by 3.
All statistics are from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 STRENGTHS
• Second chances: Baylor is fifth nationally in offensive rebounding rate and has been top 10 in that statistic each of the last nine seasons under coach Scott Drew.
• Creating havoc: The Bears rank 10th in defensive turnover rate and 12th in steal rate, as 24% of their opponents’ possessions have ended in giveaways.
• Rim scoring: Baylor — led by Kendall Brown and Jeremy Sochan — have done an excellent job finishing close shots, as the team is tied with Kentucky for the nation’s best field-goal accuracy at the rim (72%).
3 WEAKNESSES
• Transition defense: Because Baylor emphasizes the offensive glass, it sometimes struggles to get back against fast breaks — an area KU thrived with in its 83-59 home win over Baylor earlier this month.
• Defensive rebounding: The Bears are worse than NCAA average when it comes to D-board rate, and they shouldn’t be expected to improve while going without top defensive rebounder Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua, who’s out for the season with a knee injury.
• The line: Baylor plays a mostly non-physical style offensively, getting to the free-throw line infrequently while also having issues (69%, 256th nationally) once its gets there.
PLAYER TO WATCH
6-foot-9 guard/forward Matthew Mayer (No. 24)
Plus: Rated Baylor’s best player by the individual measure at EvanMiya.com
Plus: Takes highest volume of shots among team’s rotation players
Plus: Extremely secure with ball; has five combined turnovers in last 10 games
Plus: 35% career three-point shooter who won’t hesitate
Plus: Ranks top two on team in both steal and block rate
Plus: Strong defensive rebounder
Minus: Takes a lot of efficiency-killing mid-range attempts and is only average shooter there
Minus: Rarely creates for others
Minus: Doesn’t get to free-throw line often
PREDICTION
The Quick Scout Crystal Ball™ is fully functional again, as we’re now at six consecutive correct picks against the spread. We’ll see if we can make it seven.
It’s pretty evident at this point that the Jayhawks’ romp over the Bears in early February was a severe outlier. Baylor missed a ridiculous amount of shots it usually doesn’t, and a confident KU team took full advantage while sprinting its way to efficiency in transition settings.
The rematch will be different. Through injuries, Baylor has steadied itself after that KU loss, going 4-1 with impressive 15-plus-point victories over Kansas State (away) and Texas (home). This is a strong Bears team, and while not quite as potent from three-point range as it was a season ago, Drew’s squad still has plenty of ways to score and continues to be a tough matchup defensively because of its get-after-you style.
This one will have some national spotlight. ESPN’s College GameDay will be in town, which means KU should get Baylor’s best from a crowd standpoint too.
I like the Bears in this spot quite a bit. KU has struggled in road settings with turnovers, and it’s easy to see that deficiency popping up with this particular opponent and atmosphere. I’m also concerned with KU center David McCormack’s foot, as he didn’t look like himself while grinding out 19 minutes against K-State on Tuesday. McCormack is KU’s best bet at exposing Baylor’s significant defensive weakness — rebounding — but if he’s not close to 100%, it would severely limit KU’s potential production at that 5 spot.
Defensively, McCormack’s status could present issues for KU too. He is KU’s top deterrent in efforts to prevent a Baylor dunk-fest, as the Bears thrive off getting those close shots with athletic players like Brown and Sochan putting them away at an impressive clip.
The Jayhawks have been on an uptick the last few weeks, but this seems like a spot where it’d be natural for a step back. Look for Baylor’s shooting to be better ... and for the Bears to get the win and cover.
Baylor 76, Kansas 67
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Baylor
HAWK TO ROCK
Here are Baylor’s most glaring defensive deficiencies: transition, rebounding and lack of rim protection. That makes this a decent matchup for Jalen Wilson, who has made 65% of his twos in Big 12 play and has provided a spark at times by crashing the offensive glass. Something like an 18-point, 12-rebound line from Wilson wouldn’t surprise me at all.
Last game prediction: Kansas 76, K-State 60 (Actual: KU 102-83) ✔️
2021-22 record vs. spread: 12-15
Last eight seasons’ record vs. spread: 142-120-3 (54%)
