One worry for stat-defying K-State Wildcats vs. Kansas Jayhawks basketball: Quick Scout
Before every KU men’s basketball game, Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Tuesday’s game: Kansas State at No. 5 Kansas, 8 p.m., Allen Fieldhouse, Lawrence
TV: ESPN
Opponent’s record: 14-12
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 55
Point spread: Kansas by 12.
All statistics are from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 STRENGTHS
• Three-point shooting: K-State has attempted the highest percentage of three-point shots in Big 12 play ... while also ranking first in the league in accuracy on those tries (35%).
• No easy buckets: Only 30% of field goals against the Wildcats defense come at the rim, the 23rd-best defensive mark nationally.
• Ball security: K-State has turned it over on only 17% of its possessions in league play — the conference’s best mark and one that’s even more impressive considering how many Big 12 defenses focus on creating takeaways.
3 WEAKNESSES
• Rebounding ... both ends: Coach Bruce Weber appears to value his guys getting back in transition, which has limited his team’s offensive rebounding, and K-State also ranks ninth out of 10 Big 12 teams in D-board rate during league play.
• Interior shooting: It’s ugly everywhere inside for the Wildcats; they rank 283rd in two-point percentage, 285th in shot-at-the-rim accuracy and 342nd in field-goal percentage on mid-range jumpers.
• Shot blocking: K-State has big guys who play but no true rim-protector, as it is 340th nationally in defensive block rate.
PLAYER TO WATCH
6-foot guard Nijel Pack (No. 24)
Plus: Rated K-State’s best player by the individual measure at EvanMiya.com
Plus: Scored 35 vs. KU with help from 8-for-12 three-point shooting in teams’ previous matchup
Plus: Elite spot-up shooter
Plus: Rarely turns it over
Plus: Improving player defensively who creates steals and has been one of team’s most valuable performers on that end
Plus: 83% career free-throw shooter
Minus: Better player in half-court than transition
Minus: Non-physical player offensively; rarely draws contact to get to free-throw line
PREDICTION
K-State’s a strange team to try to figure out statistically.
Offensively, it seems like it should be better than the numbers. Low turnovers and high-volume three-point makes are typically a dangerous combo, but it hasn’t played up as much for the Wildcats because of the team’s horrific shooting at basically every spot inside the arc.
On defense, meanwhile, K-State crowds the lane and dares opponents to make threes ... but those foes have mostly missed, a result that seems something like four parts good luck and one part defensive control.
The Wildcats will try to slow the pace down Tuesday, and it won’t be too shocking if they succeed. Weber’s team rarely gives it away and also hustles back well, meaning KU isn’t likely to get the extent of easy tries on fast breaks that it has in many other contests.
I’m worried about the Wildcats on the boards, though, and also think that allowing dare threes to the Jayhawks at Allen Fieldhouse is a dicey way to live.
Don’t be surprised if those long ones go in for KU on Tuesday. Add in that KU’s defense should be more focused on Pack — and generally has been improved in recent games — and I could see the Jayhawks making this challenging for the Wildcats on both ends of the half-court battle.
Give me KU for both the win and cover.
Kansas 76, K-State 60
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas
HAWK TO ROCK
Ochai Agbaji scored 29 in the previous matchup against K-State, and I doubt Weber will sell out to try to take him away here because of his team’s other worries defensively. As a result, Agbaji should find plenty of openings for threes, and on drives, he also will have the luxury of going against a foul-happy K-State team that lacks rim-protectors. Agbaji won co-Big 12 player of the week while averaging 21.5 in his previous two contests, and in this one, he seems set up for a potential 25-plus-point night as well.
Last game prediction: Kansas 74, West Virginia 65 (Actual: KU 71-58) ✔️
2021-22 record vs. spread: 11-15
Last eight seasons’ record vs. spread: 141-120-3 (54%)
