The good (and bad) news for West Virginia vs. Kansas Jayhawks basketball: Quick Scout
Before every KU men’s basketball game, Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Saturday’s game: No. 6 Kansas at West Virginia, 7 p.m. Central, WVU Coliseum, Morgantown, West Virginia
TV: ESPN
Opponent’s record: 14-11
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 63
Point spread: Kansas by 4 1/2.
All statistics are from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 STRENGTHS
• Creating havoc: West Virginia ranks 25th in defensive turnover percentage and 38th in steal rate, though it’s worth noting both numbers have dropped significantly since Big 12 play began.
• Getting to the line: Bob Huggins’ team has been top 40 in offensive free-throw rate the last four seasons, and this year is no exception, as the Mountaineers rank 35th in the stat while also knocking down a right-around-average 71% of their freebies.
• Rim protection: West Virginia blocks 14% of opponents’ two-point shots — the 21st-highest mark nationally — and also has led the Big 12 in block rate during league play.
3 WEAKNESSES
• Transition defense: West Virginia’s defense is 26th-worst when it comes to limiting fast-break attempts while also ranking 239th in adjusted shooting percentage against in those scenarios.
• Defensive rebounding: The Mountaineers have been dreadful on the defensive glass, ranking 348th in D-board rate — the third-worst mark of any Power Five school.
• Close shooting ... and far shooting: West Virginia has been poor with accuracy both at the rim (53%, 339th overall) and on threes (32%, 265th), and that’s while being extremely selective with the perimeter shots it does decide to take.
PLAYER TO WATCH
6-foot-7 forward Gabe Osabuohien (No. 3)
Plus: Rated fifth-best defender in nation by metrics at EvanMiya.com
Plus: Named to All-Big 12 defensive team a season ago
Plus: Team’s best shot-blocker
Plus: Does excellent job creating steals
Plus: Elite offensive rebounder
Plus: Strong on defensive glass too
Minus: Missed team’s last game after picking up three technical fouls in two previous contests; Huggins was noncommittal when asked if Osabuohien will play vs. KU
Minus: Extremely foul prone
Minus: Poor offensive player overall who seldom shoots threes and is inefficient on twos
PREDICTION
There’s one can’t-miss advantage for West Virginia in this contest against Kansas: It’s playing at WVU Coliseum.
That means more to the Mountaineers than nearly every team out there. According to Ken Pomeroy’s numbers, West Virginia has the second-best home-court advantage in the nation (behind only Texas Tech); the data indicates most of that edge is the result of officials being overly friendly to the Mountaineers when in their home gym.
It makes sense. Huggins’ teams are known for their physicality, and while that might often be held in check by refs in West Virginia road games, it appears both teams are allowed to slug it out more in Morgantown.
The Coliseum has been a tough place to play. Though West Virginia has had some ugly results in away games, it has posted three Big 12 home wins while also not losing any contest by more than 10 in its building.
KU, though, holds supremacy in one important area that showed itself in the first matchup: transition. The Jayhawks are one of the most dangerous NCAA offenses when they can create fast breaks, and unlike most Big 12 teams, West Virginia does not put great emphasis on getting back to set up its defense.
The question, of course, becomes how much KU can take advantage of this on the road — and if it’ll be enough to make up for whatever other errors the Jayhawks make.
I could see KU turning it over a decent amount. West Virginia doesn’t press as much as past seasons, but it does some. The overall-pressuring style also should put immense pressure on Dajuan Harris, who has served as the Jayhawks’ primary ball-handler with Remy Martin out.
When the two teams are getting shots, though, KU should have the upper hand. The Jayhawks can make threes, and they also should win the easy-basket battle by beating the Mountaineers down the floor after they secure defensive rebounds.
The West Virginia fans are tremendous and should be fired up. And this game always seems to bring out the worst KU turnovers of the season, including at least a couple of errant passes that have often found their way to the stands.
I still think KU can make up for all that with its “run” game in transition. Even if this one plays close for 32 minutes, the Jayhawks have the ability to create an eight-minute offensive burst that could make the rest a moot point.
Give me the Jayhawks for the win and road cover.
Kansas 74, West Virginia 65
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas
HAWK TO ROCK
He’ll have to avoid fouls in a challenging venue to do that. Still, KU’s David McCormack has a second straight ideal on-paper matchup while going against a West Virginia defense that has been miserable on the defensive glass. McCormack should have lots of opportunities for stick-backs and second-chance points while also likely to get a few free-throw attempts, even if officials are likely to be whistle-averse. Look for McCormack to post his second straight double-double on Saturday.
Last game prediction: Kansas 81, Oklahoma State 60 (Actual: KU 76-62) ✔️
2021-22 record vs. spread: 10-15
Last eight seasons’ record vs. spread: 140-120-3 (54%)
