Should recency bias affect Oklahoma State-Kansas Jayhawks basketball pick? Quick Scout
Before every KU men’s basketball game, Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Monday’s game: Oklahoma State at No. 8 Kansas, 8 p.m., Allen Fieldhouse, Lawrence
TV: ESPN
Opponent’s record: 12-12
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 49
Point spread: Kansas by 10 1/2.
All statistics are from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 STRENGTHS
• Creating havoc: Oklahoma State’s defense is top 15 in adjusted efficiency, helped mostly by its ability to create turnovers; the team ranks 16th nationally in defensive turnover percentage and 11th in steal rate.
• Rim protection: The athletic Cowboys make it tough for opposing offenses inside, as they have the best season-long shot-blocking stats in the Big 12 and also hold opponents to 45% two-point shooting (17th nationally).
• Second chances: Oklahoma State misses a lot of shots, but it has done a good job on the offensive glass, ranking 44th in O-board rate.
3 WEAKNESSES
• Three-point shooting: Oklahoma State barely attempts threes and yet is still mostly unsuccessful when it does, with no rotation player shooting better than 34% from the perimeter.
• Defensive rebounding: The Cowboys have historically recruited athletic big men under coach Mike Boynton who are springy but not heavy, which has led to the team being better at crashing the offensive glass than holding its ground for defensive boards (306th in defensive rebounding percentage this season).
• Carelessness: Oklahoma State ranks 313th in offensive turnover rate, though the team has improved its numbers in this area since Big 12 play began.
PLAYER TO WATCH
7-foot forward Moussa Cisse (No. 33)
Plus: Memphis transfer and former top-10 recruit according to 247Sports
Plus: Scored 18 points with 10 rebounds in Oklahoma State’s 81-58 win over West Virginia on Saturday
Plus: Big 12’s best shot-blocker in league play
Plus: Elite offensive rebounder
Plus: Best scoring action is receiving passes on cuts to the rim
Plus: Draws a lot of fouls
Minus: Struggles to create offense on his own
Minus: Poor finisher at rim when he gets offensive rebounds
Minus: Awful free-throw shooter (43% for career)
PREDICTION
This is one of those contests that will likely challenge bettors when thinking big picture versus recent results.
Oklahoma State is coming off one of its best games of the year in a dominating 23-point home win against West Virginia. KU, meanwhile, trailed most of its contest against Oklahoma on Saturday, then struggled to close late while squeaking out a two-point victory.
Add both together, and it can seem on the surface like a good time to like Oklahoma State’s chance to cover.
I’m going the opposite way, though.
The Jayhawks seem likely for a bounceback defensively and should absolutely create more havoc defensively than they did in an unenergetic game against Oklahoma. The Cowboys are also basically unable to score via three-pointers, which caps their ability to keep up with the Jayhawks’ fast-paced offense.
KU could struggle some inside with shot-blockers, but threes should be open, while some steals also should lead to runouts where no Oklahoma State defenders will be back to challenge shots.
The Jayhawks late-blown-lead thing has happened a lot lately, but it still seems at least somewhat fluky while peppered with some bad luck mixed in. I don’t foresee this one being close at the end while thinking KU will pull away as it did against Baylor.
Give me the Jayhawks for both the win and easy cover.
Kansas 81, Oklahoma State 60
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas
HAWK TO ROCK
For the offensive rebounding opportunities alone, it’s a great matchup for KU’s David McCormack. He has the perfect setup for a big game while going against an opponent that plays a true big man, which means McCormack should be able to stick in the lane on both ends where he’s most comfortable. Look for McCormack to dominate the offensive glass while notching his sixth double-double of the season.
Last game prediction: Kansas 73, Oklahoma 68 (Actual: KU 71-69) ✔️
2021-22 record vs. spread: 9-15
Last eight seasons’ record vs. spread: 139-120-3 (54%)
