Why Texas Longhorns’ uninspiring home setup matters vs. Kansas Jayhawks: Quick Scout
Before every KU men’s basketball game, Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Monday’s game: No. 10 Kansas at No. 23 Texas, 8 p.m., Erwin Center, Austin, Texas
TV: ESPN
Opponent’s record: 17-6
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 14
Point spread: Texas by 1 1/2.
All statistics are from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 STRENGTHS
• Transition defense: Texas’ defense does a great job of getting back, allowing the 10th-fewest opportunities in transition while also posting the 44th-best adjusted shooting-percentage defense in those scenarios.
• Creating havoc: This is basically a strength for every Big 12 defense this year; the Longhorns rank sixth in defensive turnover percentage while thriving with both steals and non-steal takeaways (like charges).
• Second chances: Texas is the rare team that crashes the offensive glass while not giving up much in transition defense; it ranks 62nd in O-board percentage while led in that stat by Creighton transfer Christian Bishop.
3 WEAKNESSES
• Transition offense: Texas ... plays ... slowly, as it gets 18% of its field-goal attempts in transition — the 33rd-lowest mark nationally.
• Fouling: The Longhorns don’t have many defensive weaknesses, but one is picking up whistles, as they have the highest defensive free-throw rate in league play of any Big 12 team.
• Easy ones: Texas, in general, struggles to get shots at the rim, as 33% of their attempts come from that desired location (297th nationally).
PLAYER TO WATCH
6-foot-6 forward Timmy Allen (No. 0)
Plus: Ranks fifth on KenPom’s All-Big 12 team
Plus: Utah transfer who was first-team All-Pac 12 a season ago
Plus: Excellent finisher in transition
Plus: Best half-court skill is drawing fouls and getting to line, where he’s career 74% shooter
Plus: Strong offensive rebounder
Plus: Team’s most effective scorer off cuts
Minus: Attempts a lot of inefficient shots from mid-range, where he’s good but not great shooter
Minus: Not a three-point threat (4-for-15 this season, 27% for career)
PREDICTION
Historically, Texas has one of the weakest home crowds that KU faces during its annual tour of the Big 12.
Playing this one in Austin, though, should still mean a lot to the Longhorns considering their defensive style.
Since 2022 began, Texas’ defense has been imposing at Erwin Center. As proof, here are opponents’ scores in each of the Longhorns’ last six home games: 59, 52, 66, 51, 51, 41. That also means Texas has allowed an average of 48 points — wow! — in its last three home contests.
It’ll be tougher to stop Kansas, which has more firepower offensively than any team Texas has seen since playing Gonzaga in November. The Jayhawks are terrific in transition, and that’ll be a battleground stat against the Longhorns, who are about as stingy in that area as a defense can be.
Will KU be able to generate other stress-free offense, though? Typically, KU can add a few easy points to its final total with cuts, offensive rebounds and inbounds plays, but each of those on Monday will likely be challenging.
Texas’ offense is no thing of beauty. The Longhorns are a good mid-range shooting team that takes too many while laboring to get the at-the-rim volume needed to be an elite offensive team.
If Texas is allowed to get away with a bit more physicality on defense without fouling, though, I see KU struggling to score while also potentially reverting to its sometimes-turnover-prone ways.
The Longhorns offense likely will be unappealing too, but I think they’ll hit enough threes to get this Big Monday win.
Texas 65, Kansas 61
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Texas
HAWK TO ROCK
David McCormack has the best matchup against a foul-happy Texas defense that is average on the defensive glass and with post defense. McCormack is KU’s best at getting to the foul line — while making 86% of his freebies in Big 12 play — and also remains as one of the nation’s elite offensive rebounders. The Newell Crystal Ball says he’ll lead KU in scoring.
Last game prediction: Kansas 74, Baylor 70 (Actual: KU 83-59) ✔️
2021-22 record vs. spread: 7-15
Last eight seasons’ record vs. spread: 137-120-3 (53%)
