Why Kansas Jayhawks basketball vs. Baylor Bears is 1-in-4,000-type game: Quick Scout
Before every KU men’s basketball game, Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Saturday’s game: No. 8 Baylor at No. 10 Kansas, 3 p.m., Allen Fieldhouse, Lawrence
TV: ESPN
Opponent’s record: 19-3
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 3
Point spread: Kansas by 2 1/2.
All statistics are from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 STRENGTHS
• Close shots: Baylor — an athletic team inside — makes 74% of its attempts at the rim, which is the best mark in the NCAA; Kentucky, which defeated KU 80-62 last week at Allen Fieldhouse, is second nationally in that stat.
• Creating havoc: The Bears thrive defensively by forcing turnovers, ranking ninth in defensive turnover percentage and fifth in steal rate.
• Second chances: This has become coach Scott Drew’s offensive staple; Baylor is fifth in offensive rebounding percentage and has been top-10 nationally in that stat each of the last nine seasons.
3 WEAKNESSES
• Carelessness: Baylor will give it away some, ranking 201st in offensive turnover percentage.
• Transition defense: The Bears do an OK job of limiting opponents’ fast-break attempts considering their emphasis on offensive rebounding, but they’ve also struggled when foes get those opportunities; Baylor’s defense ranks 288th in adjusted shooting percentage against in transition settings.
• Getting/making free throws: Baylor rarely draws contact to get to the free-throw line, and once there, it has struggled while making only 67% of its freebies (291st nationally).
PLAYER TO WATCH
6-foot-1 guard James Akinjo (No. 11)
Plus: Ranks fourth on KenPom’s All-Big 12 team
Plus: Arizona transfer who was first-team All-Pac 12 a season ago
Plus: Takes on most significant role for Baylor’s offense with decent efficiency
Plus: Excellent passer
Plus: Career 38% three-point shooter
Plus: Has posted high steal rate
Minus: Attempts a lot of inefficient shots from mid-range, where he’s an average shooter
Minus: Can be turnover prone
Minus: Has struggled to score in transition settings
PREDICTION
The “Newell Fade” should probably be a thing if it wasn’t already.
My against-the-spread record below is dreadful, so taking up a bunch of your time in this space acting like I know what’s going to happen seems sort of disingenuous at this point.
I will say this: It should be a great game. Ken Pomeroy ranks a “Thrill Score” for each NCAA game in a season, which takes into account “competitiveness and level of play with a lean towards higher-scoring games.” The KU-Baylor Thrill Score is 86.0, the highest mark of any of the 4,000-plus Division I games played this season.
In other words ... this could be an instant classic. And it also has the potential to come down to the slimmest of margins where one call or one 50-50 ball could end up determining the outcome.
Baylor, statistically, has been the better team this year. But KU is at home, making this the rare game at Allen Fieldhouse where the Jayhawks aren’t more than a-point-or-two favorites.
It still feels like one of those contests that Kansas coach Bill Self wins more than his fair share of ... especially in Lawrence. KU likely needs to avoid getting swept by Baylor to earn at least a share of the Big 12 title, and if the Jayhawks are going to get one, this’ll be the easier task.
So I will predict a close, fun game with KU winning by a slim margin.
Do with that what you will.
Kansas 74, Baylor 70
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas
HAWK TO ROCK
Baylor can be leaky in transition and also will surrender some threes against offenses that move the ball well in the half court. It’s a good game, then, for Ochai Agbaji to be back after returning from COVID protocols, as he has the best matchup in a contest where KU will undoubtedly need all the offensive advantages it can get.
Last game prediction: Iowa State 69, Kansas 66 (Actual: KU 70-61) ❌
2021-22 record vs. spread: 6-15
Last eight seasons’ record vs. spread: 136-120-3 (53%)
