Quick Scout: Here’s the one stat to watch for KU Jayhawks basketball at Iowa State
Note: After Quick Scout posted, KU announced Tuesday morning that Ochai Agbaji did not make the trip with the team because of COVID safety protocols.
Before every KU men’s basketball game, Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Tuesday’s game: No. 10 Kansas at No. 20 Iowa State, 6 p.m., Hilton Coliseum, Ames, Iowa
TV/Streaming: ESPN
Opponent’s record: 16-5
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 24
Point spread: Kansas by 4 1/2.
All statistics are from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 STRENGTHS
• Creating havoc: Iowa State ranks third nationally in defensive turnover percentage and leads the conference in that stat during Big 12 play.
• Cuts: The Cyclones love to create scoring opportunities off cuts starting with passes to their big men at the elbow; they have the 23rd-highest frequency of any team nationally of possessions ending with “cuts,” and producing those easier chances has helped them shoot an impressive 54% from two-point range in eight conference games.
• Getting back: Iowa State’s defense allows the 18th-fewest opportunities in transition to opponents while also holding them to below-average shooting even when they do get attempts on fast breaks.
3 WEAKNESSES
• Giveaways: Much like Oklahoma, Iowa State’s offense relying on cuts to the basket has the trade-off of a high amount of turnovers (275th in offensive turnover rate).
• Running enough: The Cyclones are efficient on fast breaks, but they don’t run as much as one might expect (325th in fast-break frequency), especially given the number of steals they create.
• Fouls: Iowa State’s most significant defensive weakness is whistles, as it ranks 313th in defensive free throw rate and last in that category during Big 12 play.
PLAYER TO WATCH
6-foot-4 guard Izaiah Brockington (No. 1)
Plus: Had 17 points and eight rebounds in Iowa State’s 62-61 loss to KU on Jan. 11 at Allen Fieldhouse
Plus: Ranks second on KenPom’s All-Big 12 team, behind only KU’s Ochai Agbaji
Plus: Does above-average job getting fouled and is 80% free-throw shooter this season
Plus: Outstanding shooter off the dribble
Plus: Elite scorer in isolation settings
Plus: Strong defensive rebounder, especially for his size
Minus: Has made 41% of threes this season, but that’s not his game; has attempted five times more twos (225) than threes (44)
Minus: Low assist rate indicates he’s much more comfortable creating offense for himself than others
PREDICTION
Folks, I don’t know what to do anymore.
I am convinced that KU, at some point, will start playing better than the 10th-best team nationally (its current rank at KenPom). And I also like to keep perspective while trying to not overreact to small-sample-size results; it’s why the last few games, I figured KU would snap out of its mini-skid and come through with a cover.
That hasn’t happened, though. And the longer this slump goes on, the more I feel like I need to change my previous thoughts while perhaps giving in to the temptation to believe that this team’s underperformance might continue.
Hilton Coliseum is one of KU’s most challenging road games, with Cyclones fans among the most motivated to take down the Jayhawks. Add in that a home game should allow Iowa State to play with increased defensive physicality — while considering how poorly KU has dealt with pressure defenses lately — and one can certainly imagine a scenario where the Jayhawks struggle to get going Tuesday.
I have worries about Iowa State offensively. The Cyclones turn it over a lot, and while their cuts can be challenging to defend, they haven’t been a consistent three-point shooting team. Add in the lack of transition, and it’s been a battle most games for Iowa State to score, even if the defense still has kept the team in most contests.
This game, to me, is all about the turnovers. If KU can handle pressure and raise its floor with shot frequency, it should score effectively both inside and at the free-throw line. And it wouldn’t have to be perfect there either, as Iowa State is likely to experience some shooting lulls of its own.
My confidence level in this Jayhawks team remaining calm in chaos, though, is not high at the moment. First, KU had above-average road turnover percentages against Oklahoma State, Texas Tech and Oklahoma. Then, against Kansas State, the team was reckless in the first half before settling down after intermission as part of a 16-point rally.
Considering my against-the-spread record below, this should be a relief to KU fans. But I like Iowa State to win this one with defense while forcing KU too many times out of what it wants to run offensively.
Give me the Cyclones as the underdog winner.
Iowa State 69, Kansas 66
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Iowa State
HAWK TO ROCK
It seems like Christian Braun has been in a scoring slump since Big 12 play started, but this remains a good matchup for him. Iowa State hasn’t been great at defending cuts — one of Braun’s specialties — while the Cyclones also have a leaky two-point defense and foul-happy ways that Braun has the skill-set to exploit. Braun’s high for points in league play has been 15, so let’s predict he matches or exceeds that output Tuesday.
Last game prediction: Kansas 78, Kentucky 69 (Actual: Kentucky 80-62) ❌
2021-22 record vs. spread: 6-14
Last eight seasons’ record vs. spread: 136-119-3 (53%)
This story was originally published February 1, 2022 at 5:00 AM.
