Quick Scout: Kansas Jayhawks’ foe Iowa State has had elite defense ... with help here
Before every KU men’s basketball game, Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Tuesday’s game: No. 15 Iowa State at No. 9 Kansas, 7 p.m., Allen Fieldhouse, Lawrence, Kansas
TV/Streaming: ESPN+
Opponent’s record: 13-2
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 38
Point spread: Kansas by 11 1/2.
All statistics are from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 STRENGTHS
• Creating havoc: Like Texas Tech, Iowa State thrives defensively with forcing giveaways, ranking seventh in defensive turnover percentage and 14th in steal rate.
• Second chances: Iowa State does a decent job on the offensive glass, helped in that stat mostly by forward George Conditt and former Jayhawk guard Tristan Enaruna.
• Three-point defense (luck?): Opponents have made only 26% of their threes against Iowa State, but that number typically is steeped more in good fortune than skill; coach T.J. Otzelberger’s defenses didn’t consistently thrive with this at UNLV or South Dakota State, and it also could partly be a reflection of the Cyclones’ bottom-feeder-heavy nonconference schedule.
3 WEAKNESSES
• Carelessness: Again, much like KU’s previous opponent Texas Tech, Iowa State’s most significant concern offensively is recklessness while ranking 275th in offensive turnover rate.
• Fouling: One of the Cyclones’ only defensive weaknesses is fouling, as they’re 282nd in defensive free throw rate.
• Dealing with size: Iowa State appears to be significantly affected by shot-blockers, with a higher-than-average number of twos rejected despite mostly going against weak competition.
PLAYER TO WATCH
6-foot-4 guard Izaiah Brockington (No. 1)
Plus: Team’s go-to player offensively
Plus: Has excellent efficiency numbers
Plus: Gets to line decent amount and is 80% shooter there this season
Plus: Choosy but accurate three-point shooter (14-for-34, 41%); loves to pull up in isolation settings
Plus: Outstanding defensive rebounder, especially for his size
Minus: Synergy’s logs indicate he’s a better shooter off the dribble than the catch
Minus: Doesn’t hesitate to shoot mid-range jumpers, which remains an inefficient shot overall
PREDICTION
Before making any potential gambling decisions, be sure to read my against-the-spread record for the season at the bottom. Woof.
Anyways, I like KU a lot in this spot. The Jayhawks should be motivated defensively after playing poorly in Saturday’s road loss to Texas Tech, and KU coach Bill Self often has a way of getting extra out of his guys following a contest where they were out-toughed.
Though KU’s transition offense mostly went silent in its last two road games, playing a careless Iowa State team appears to be a welcome matchup now; the Jayhawks not only can get some of their defensive mojo back at Allen Fieldhouse but also can potentially convert steals into points with their dynamic transition scoring.
Iowa State’s defense is elite — sixth in adjusted defensive efficiency — but also appears to be propped up by a bit of good opponent shooting fortune. For example, Synergy’s numbers indicate teams have averaged a measly 0.765 points per possession on “unguarded” spot-up attempts against Iowa State, which appears much more attributable to poor opponents than outstanding defense.
This seems like the spot for a big KU bounceback. Give me the Jayhawks for both the win and cover.
Kansas 83, Iowa State 63
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas
HAWK TO ROCK
Speaking of a bounceback, this is an opportunity for Christian Braun to return to the impact player he was in December. Only Remy Martin feeds off the home crowd more than Braun, and his ability to create steals, score in transition and block shots makes him a player capable of exploiting Iowa State’s most prominent weaknesses. Braun hasn’t scored 20-plus in any of his last three contests, but I predict he’ll get there Tuesday.
Last game prediction: Kansas 71, Texas Tech 62 (Actual: Texas Tech 75-67) ❌
2021-22 record vs. spread: 4-10
Last eight seasons’ record vs. spread: 134-115-3 (54%)
