Quick Scout: Why Kansas Jayhawks-Texas Tech betting line isn’t following projections
Before every KU men’s basketball game, Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Saturday’s game: No. 6 Kansas at No. 25 Texas Tech, 3 p.m., United Supermarkets Arena, Lubbock, Texas
TV/Streaming: ESPN2
Opponent’s record: 10-3
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 20
Point spread: Kansas by 5.
All statistics are from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 STRENGTHS
• Creating havoc: Texas Tech continues to have an aggressive defensive style, ranking 17th in defensive turnover rate while especially thriving with non-steal-turnovers (mainly in the form of taking charges).
• Transition defense: The Red Raiders’ athleticism plays up in this aspect, as they allow fewer fastbreak opportunities than an average defense while ranking 29th in adjusted-shooting percentage against in those scenarios.
• Offense around the rim: Texas Tech prospers in lots of areas near the basket, including offensive rebounding percentage (eighth nationally), frequency of close shots (58th) and field-goal percentage at the rim (44th).
3 WEAKNESSES
• Carelessness: Texas Tech has had issues with giveaways (259th in offensive turnover rate), with a high percentage of those coming on non-steals, including mistakes like travels, charges, and throwing it out of bounds.
• Free-throw shooting: The Red Raiders get to the line a lot, but they’re not great once they get there with 66% accuracy (312th nationally).
• Three-point defense: Each staff makes philosophical decisions to give up something defensively, and it appears Texas Tech coach Mark Adams is content with allowing lots of three-point attempts as a trade-off for his team’s pressuring ways; opponents have attempted 51% of their shots against the Red Raiders from three, which is the third-highest mark against any defense nationally.
PLAYER TO WATCH
6-foot-8 forward Bryson Williams (No. 11)
Plus: Had 23 points and 13 rebounds against KU in UTEP’s near-upset against the Jayhawks late last season at Allen Fieldhouse
Plus: Aggressive in looking for his shot
Plus: Strong offensive rebounder
Plus: Choosy but capable three-point shooter (11 for 26, 42%)
Plus: Synergy’s logs rate him as an “excellent” overall defender
Minus: Doesn’t get to the free-throw line as often as one might expect
Minus: Foul prone at times
Minus: Has had to battle for minutes as part of talented front line; has played more than 20 minutes in just one of last four contests
PREDICTION
Let’s start with this: Vegas’s five-point line seems to be moving away from projection systems — most of those like KU by about two — because of Texas Tech’s roster situation.
The Red Raiders had only seven players available for Wednesday’s road game against Iowa State because of injuries and COVID. While Adams said some players could return for the KU matchup, it seems likely — at a minimum — that top player Terrence Shannon will remain out with back spasms.
KU also saw in its previous game against Oklahoma State how COVID can potentially throw off a team midseason. The Cowboys weren’t able to deliver their complete pressure defense while still getting back into game shape, and they also just looked a bit sluggish throughout as KU pulled away in the second half for an 11-point victory.
I’m worried about Texas Tech for this reason. Not only did the Red Raiders have seven guys pushed to the max Wednesday who could be tired, but their whole defensive setup relies on utilizing the bench while playing with rampant aggressiveness and energy.
Will that fire be there against KU, considering all the obstacles? Playing at home will help — and Texas Tech has a great home crowd — but it’ll probably be tough for Adams to expect the guys available to perform like none of these challenges exist.
For KU ... it’ll be essential to shoot threes. Lots of them. Texas Tech has an elite defense, but much of that comes from creating hesitancy from opponents who too often turn it over while trying to search for a perfect shot.
The Red Raiders are about as aggressive with their “no-middle” defense as any team out there. One way to succeed, though, is to get in a ball screen and look opposite, where shooters will have the chance for open threes if they get passes on time and target.
Weirdly, I like KU’s chances better if Texas Tech has more than seven players available.
The Texas Tech-Iowa State game officials seemed determined to swallow their whistles in a subconscious attempt to not foul out Red Raiders players because of their limited roster, and that played into Texas Tech’s favor. Tech’s players noticed how the game was being called and amped up the aggressiveness, making it difficult for Iowa State to initiate its offense at any point past mid-court.
If the refs allow that kind of physicality again Saturday, KU could be in trouble, especially against a team that ranks third in KenPom’s home-court advantage measure.
I still don’t think we saw the best from the Jayhawks on Tuesday, though, and I believe they will be the fresher, more energetic team Saturday based on both health and roster circumstances.
Give me KU for both the win and cover.
Kansas 71, Texas Tech 62
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas
HAWK TO ROCK
Texas Tech allows the ninth-highest percentage of spot-up attempts nationally, and Ochai Agbaji is 88th percentile on that particular shot type. Agbaji will need help from teammates like Remy Martin and Dajuan Harris to create those open attempts, but he’s the one that should finish those possessions, three points at a time. Look for Agbaji to lead the Jayhawks in scoring.
Last game prediction: Kansas 79, Oklahoma State 68 (Actual: KU 74-63)✔️
2021-22 record vs. spread: 4-9
Last eight seasons’ record vs. spread: 134-114-3 (54%)
