Quick Scout: Why Kansas Jayhawks-Oklahoma St. Cowboys game has some mystery before tip
Before every KU men’s basketball game, Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Tuesday’s game: No. 6 Kansas at Oklahoma State, 8 p.m., Gallagher-Iba Arena, Stillwater, Oklahoma
TV/Streaming: ESPN2
Opponent’s record: 7-4
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 52
Point spread: Kansas by 6 1/2.
All statistics are from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 STRENGTHS
• Defensive activity: Oklahoma State has an athletic roster and plays like it on the defensive end, ranking top eight nationally in block percentage and steal rate.
• Attacking the rim: The Cowboys get 47% of their field-goal attempts at the rim — the 10th-highest mark nationally — while also doing an excellent job of creating free-throw opportunities with their aggressiveness.
• Interior defense: Oklahoma State surrenders a lot of close shots but defends those exceptionally well, ranking 17th nationally in two-point percentage defense.
3 WEAKNESSES
• Three-point shooting: KU probably won’t face a worst three-point shooting team all year; Oklahoma State has only made 28% of its perimeter tries, and that’s while hardly ever shooting it from deep.
• Live-ball turnovers: Oklahoma State not only is careless offensively — ranking 317th in offensive turnover rate — but a high percentage of those have been opponent steals, which often lead to transition opportunities.
• Defensive rebounding: This has become a program pattern for coach Mike Boynton; he seems to favor lighter, athletic big men who do well on the offensive glass but are naturally worse on the defensive glass because they aren’t as heavy.
PLAYER TO WATCH
6-foot-2 guard Bryce Williams (No. 14)
Plus: Has averaged 19 points over last three games
Plus: Draws lots of fouls and has made 84% of free throws this year
Plus: Athletic player who thrives with steals
Plus: Strong passer
Plus: Has exceptional block rate for his size
Minus: Poor three-point shooter; made 26% this season and 32% for career
Minus: Has been turnover prone
PREDICTION
The George Mason result makes five against-the-spread defeats in a row — the longest losing streak in Quick Scout history — so the advice here once again is to either fade this pick or proceed with extreme caution.
Anyways, this one’s tough to gauge from the start because of Oklahoma State’s player availability. The Tulsa World’s Eli Lederman reported Monday that the Cowboys were walloped by COVID recently, while at one point down to only four players at practice last week.
Boynton said he didn’t expect to have everyone available for Tuesday’s game against KU, but there’s a pretty wide error bar to consider. Missing 2-3 starters would be different from being without a pair of walk-ons, so just know going in, we’re already dealing with some unknowns. Oklahoma State also hasn’t played since Dec. 18 because of a COVID pause, so it’s tough to gauge whether that means players will be fresh, rusty or still recovering from any lingering illness (though Boynton shared some concerns with the Tulsa World on Monday about his team’s potential conditioning).
The good news for KU is that it appears point guard Remy Martin will be back following his recent knee injury. The Jayhawks need as many sure ball-handlers as possible, as much like recent West Virginia teams, Oklahoma State has sold out to a high-risk defensive style that relies on creating havoc in both the frontcourt and backcourt.
Gallagher-Iba Arena has historically been a tough place for coach Bill Self to play, but I like KU in this spot. The Jayhawks, when full strength, have attacked opposing press defenses effectively this season, and that included a St. John’s game in New York when the Red Storm gave up on trying it because the strategy was so ineffective.
Oklahoma State’s offense should be interior-focused, which is preferable for KU’s often-scrambling defense. The Cowboys also turn it over a bunch, and because the Jayhawks have one of the nation’s best transition offenses, you can expect them to turn those mistakes into points more than an average team.
KU, remember, has won 30 straight conference openers dating back to the 1991-92 season. I see the streak moving to 31 — with the Jayhawks accomplishing that comfortably.
Kansas 79, Oklahoma State 68
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas
HAWK TO ROCK
This is not great timing considering he’s been removed from the starting lineup, but David McCormack still has strengths that match up with many Oklahoma State weaknesses. McCormack is elite on the offensive glass, draws fouls better than anyone in KU’s rotation and also has been surprisingly good at swiping steals from the center spot. On paper, it appears like a nice potential bounce-back spot for him.
Last game prediction: Kansas 88, George Mason 64 (Actual: KU 76-67) ❌
2021-22 record vs. spread: 3-9
Last eight seasons’ record vs. spread: 133-114-3 (54%)
