Quick Scout: Why Kansas Jayhawks basketball opponent Nevada is team of contradictions
Before every KU men’s basketball game, Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Wednesday’s game: Nevada at No. 6 Kansas, 7 p.m. Central, Allen Fieldhouse, Lawrence
TV/Streaming: ESPN+
Opponent’s record: 6-4
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 77
Point spread: Kansas by 17 1/2.
All statistics are from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 STRENGTHS
• Transition offense: This trait seems to follow coach Steve Alford wherever he goes; Nevada is excellent on the run, ranking 41st in transition frequency and 39th in adjusted shooting percentage on fast breaks.
• Size: The Wolf Pack is 12th in KenPom’s height measure while often playing fellow 7-foot players Warren Washington and Will Baker together.
• Free-throw shooting: Nevada is only average-ish at getting to the line, but once there, it’s made 79% of its tries — the 18th-best mark nationally.
3 WEAKNESSES
• Offensive rebounding: This appears to be a coaching decision to get back in transition defense, as Alford’s three Nevada teams all have been poor on the offensive glass.
• Three-point defense: The Wolf Pack has the double-whammy of struggling to close out to three-point shooters while also seeing an above-average number of opponent attempts going in.
• Defensive pressure: Nevada is primarily passive on the defensive end, ranking 242nd in defensive turnover percentage and 272nd in steal rate.
PLAYER TO WATCH
6-foot-2 guard Grant Sherfield (No. 25)
Plus: Former Wichita State guard who played high school basketball at Sunrise Christian in Bel Aire, Kansas
Plus: Nevada’s go-to player offensively
Plus: Excellent passer
Plus: Efficient when finishing in ball-screen scenarios
Plus: Outstanding shooter from three and at free-throw line
Minus: Can be turnover prone
Minus: Struggles in isolation settings and also settles for lots of mid-range jumpers, which has dragged down his two-point percentage
PREDICTION
After writing about 250 Quick Scouts, I’ve started to expect a general profile for a team when it has a rotation as tall as Nevada’s.
Typically, those teams do well on the offensive glass, get fouled a lot and hold down opponent two-point percentages by blocking shots. This makes logical sense; teams recruiting and developing post players often dominate those facets.
It’s interesting, then, that Nevada is not good in any of those areas. The Wolf Pack doesn’t have great rim protection while allowing opponents to shoot a decent percentage from two. Its big men are allowed to attack the offensive glass, but they overall aren’t great at it, and all of their other teammates appear to be flowing back for help with transition defense.
And while 7-footers Warren Washington and Will Baker might seem intimidating on paper, their statistical impact might not be what you’d expect. Baker, in particular, seems to be a stretch-type player, making 12 of 22 threes while registering only two blocks.
This matchup, though, should provide KU with one big area for concern: Nevada’s ability to create and score in transition. Unfortunately for KU, this matches up directly with one of its most significant weaknesses, as the Jayhawks defense ranks 318th in shooting percentage against in fast-break scenarios.
That flaw showed in KU’s last game against Stephen F. Austin, as the Lumberjacks scored 14 fast-break points, with 10 of those coming in the first half.
The Jayhawks can’t afford to be a step slow off holiday vacation and following their long layoff, as the Wolf Pack will be looking to show its firepower on the run.
KU should get — and make — enough half-court threes to be fine overall. I wonder how good the crowd will be in this game, though, and think Nevada’s offense will be a touch better than other score projections suggest, thanks to its ability to score quickly.
Kansas 87, Nevada 77
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Nevada.
HAWK TO ROCK
Let’s go off the grid a bit here and take Zach Clemence as a surprise HTR. KU coach Bill Self has complimented him often in the last couple of weeks, and this matchup against Nevada seems like the type where Self could give him extended run as he goes against post players who aren’t as likely to out-muscle him. The Wolf Pack’s bigs also have been awful at closing out on perimeter shooters, so if KU’s guards can find Clemence on pick-and-pops, the opportunity is there for him to hit multiple threes.
Last game prediction: Kansas 91, Stephen F. Austin 63 (Actual: KU 80-72) ❌
2021-22 record vs. spread: 3-7
Last eight seasons’ record vs. spread: 133-112-3 (54%)
This story was originally published December 29, 2021 at 5:00 AM.
