Quick Scout: Why KU Jayhawks-Dayton Flyers prediction is an attempt at stripping luck
Before every KU men’s basketball game, Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Friday’s game: Dayton vs. No. 4 Kansas, 12:30 p.m. Central, HP Field House, Kissimmee, Florida
TV/Streaming: ESPN
Opponent’s record: 2-3
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 119
Point spread: KU by 15 1/2.
All statistics are from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 STRENGTHS
• Scoring inside: Dayton has made 72% of its field goals at the rim — good for 22nd nationally — and overall is shooting 57% on two-pointers (33rd nationally).
• Size: Unlike KU’s last three opponents, the Flyers are taller than an average NCAA team while starting four players that are at least 6-6.
• Defensive glass: Dayton ranks 62nd in defensive rebounding rate, and that strength was evident in its upset against Miami (Florida) on Thursday, as the team grabbed 27 of the 33 available defensive boards.
3 WEAKNESSES
• Transition offense: Dayton, which gets about an average number of shots on fast breaks, ranks 344th in adjusted shooting percentage on those opportunities.
• Three-point defense(?): The Flyers defense allows a lot of three-pointers, and through five games, those shots have gone in at a ridiculous clip; for example, Dayton is 357th out of 358 teams, via Synergy, when it comes to points per possession allowed on “spot-up” attempts.
• Carelessness: Dayton has given it away on at least 20% of its possessions — a high number — in each of its last four contests.
PLAYER TO WATCH
6-foot-8 forward Toumani Camara (No. 2)
Plus: Among team’s go-to players offensively
Plus: Has excellent efficiency in post-up settings
Plus: Strong defensive rebounder
Plus: Good shooter both at rim and in mid-range
Plus: Has posted team’s top steal rate
Minus: Synergy’s logs rank him as “poor” overall defender who has especially struggled to get out to spot-up shooters
Minus: Turns it over frequently
Minus: 21% career three-point shooter on 90 attempts
PREDICTION
Dayton is a difficult team to figure out.
The Flyers already have home losses to Austin Peay, Lipscomb and UMass Lowell — three sub-200-ranked KenPom teams that each would qualify as an awful result on its own.
Yet, dig deeper, and at least some of this appears to be the result of wretched shooting luck, as Dayton’s opponents have cashed in on threes at a rate that shouldn’t be sustainable for a 30-plus-game schedule.
Some of that began to sort itself out Thursday. Dayton flipped its early narrative, making 11 of 19 threes to Miami’s 4 of 20 in the Flyers’ 76-60 victory at the ESPN Events Invitational.
An attempt to strip away the lucky elements likely leaves you with this: Dayton is a team that struggles offensively, as it is poor in transition with a high turnover rate and unreliable outside shooting. On defense, the Flyers are better than they have looked, getting back in transition well with enough size to challenge interior shots. However, they can be subject to the whims of chance while allowing a high number of opponent perimeter attempts.
KU’s smaller guards should be able to force some turnovers Friday. While Dayton had an excellent outside shooting day against Miami, the season body of work indicates the outlier performance isn’t likely to carry over.
The Jayhawks, though, have been noticeably two-point-centric thus far, and if that trend continues, they’ll be playing to the strength of a Flyers defense that sprints back well and also makes things difficult at the rim.
KU should win this one, but it wouldn’t surprise me if facing a team with this type of height — it’s been a while — bugs the Jayhawks more than pregame projections might indicate.
Kansas 73, Dayton 64
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Dayton
HAWK TO ROCK
After playing 11 scoreless minutes against North Texas, Jalen Coleman-Lands appears to have a better matchup, as he should find it easier to defend Dayton’s taller bodies compared to the tiny guards he’s gone against lately. Coleman-Lands’ standout strength also has a chance to play up against Dayton, as KU — with quick ball movement — should be able to free its wing-type players for threes. The super-senior has never been shy about attempting those, so the potential is there for him to hit double figures Friday.
Last game prediction: Kansas 80, North Texas 60 (Actual: KU 71-59) ❌
2021-22 record vs. spread: 1-3
Last eight seasons’ record vs. spread: 131-108-3 (55%)
This story was originally published November 26, 2021 at 4:00 AM.
