Quick Scout: KU Jayhawks opponent North Texas is defensive clone of this Big 12 team
Before every KU men’s basketball game, Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Thursday’s game: North Texas vs. No. 4 Kansas, 1:30 p.m. Central, HP Field House, Kissimmee, Florida
TV/Streaming: ESPN
Opponent’s record: 2-1
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 115
Point spread: Kansas by 14 1/2.
All statistics are from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 STRENGTHS
• Tempo control: North Texas loves to dictate pace by slowing down offensively, posting the ninth-longest average offensive possession time in college basketball; interestingly, despite those extra seconds holding the ball, the Mean Green has done a great job of avoiding giveaways (42nd in turnover rate).
• Creating havoc: Not only does North Texas create a lot of takeaways (eighth in defensive turnover rate), but it also is one of the nation’s best at taking charges.
• Getting whistles: The Mean Green loves to spread and drive to put pressure on defenses, and so far, that’s helped result in a high free-throw rate; North Texas has 25 and 23 free throws attempted in its last two games, and remember, that’s in contests with fewer possessions because of the team’s offensive style.
3 WEAKNESSES
• Going against length: While North Texas does draw some free throws, it also sometimes tends to attack size when it shouldn’t, as opponents have blocked 20% of its two-point attempts this season — the third-highest mark nationally.
• Size: The Mean Green starts a true big man in 6-10 Abou Ousmane but mostly sticks with playing tiny guards otherwise while ranking 312th in average height.
• Rim protection: Ousmane is only an OK shot-blocker for his size (one block in three games), and outside of him, North Texas does not have any others that should instill fear defensively as interior threats.
PLAYER TO WATCH
6-foot-6 forward Thomas Bell (No. 4)
Plus: Not afraid to be aggressive offensively; has one of highest usage rates in college basketball
Plus: Greatest strength is creating contact and drawing fouls
Plus: Strong defensive rebounder
Plus: Must account for him on offensive glass
Plus: Will shoot open threes and made 35% last season
Minus: One of team’s most turnover-prone players
Minus: Small sample but has struggled in mid-range this year, going 0-for-5 from that area in three contests
PREDICTION
It doesn’t take much film to see that North Texas is the copycat of another Big 12 school.
The Mean Green, on defense, denies middle at all costs and rotates aggressively on the back end. It’s a facsimile of what KU fans have seen from Texas Tech’s defense in recent years, and North Texas coach Grant McCasland has openly admitted that the Red Raiders are the model for what the Mean Green is trying to accomplish on that end.
There’s a reason this style has made its way around college basketball so much in recent years: It can be challenging to go against while also allowing the defense to play with some assertiveness while dictating the ball go a specific direction.
The good news for KU is that coach Bill Self won’t have to develop some new and distinct game plan. Instead, this one can be taken straight from the Texas Tech and Baylor notes from years past, which could give the Jayhawks at least a bit of an advantage that some other North Texas opponents might not have.
Some keys for KU will be to hit the opposite wing with passes for open threes and also not over-penetrate where North Texas will be looming for charge attempts. Running in transition could also help the Jayhawks.
I have to admit: I like KU more than the 14 1/2-point spread here. Even with some poor starts, the Jayhawks have bounced back with efficient stretches that make me believe even more consistency is possible. It’s weird to say too, but it feels like KU hasn’t shot it that well even while making 39% from three. Case in point: Synergy’s logs have the Jayhawks making 2 of 11 “unguarded” spot-up attempts this season, which ranks in the first percentile nationally. Adjust that to a normal range, and KU’s offense is likely to become a tick or two better than it’s been so far.
North Texas doesn’t shoot it great, and it sure looks like a team that won’t love going against some of the big bodies KU can throw in there.
Add it all up, and I like KU for both the win and cover — even if the game doesn’t get above 70 possessions where Self would prefer it to be.
Kansas 80, North Texas 60
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas
HAWK TO ROCK
Earlier this week, Self mentioned David McCormack had been getting off to slow starts this season. It would be a perfect day for him to change that. McCormack has a great matchup on paper, going against a North Texas team that likes to carelessly challenge big men on offense while providing little resistance to those same post players on the other end. North Texas does an excellent job of drawing fouls — McCormack will have to be smart there — but if he stays in, something like a 20-point, six-block effort is certainly in the range of possibilities.
Last game prediction: Kansas 90, Stony Brook 58 (Actual: KU 88-59) ✔️
2021-22 record vs. spread: 1-2
Last eight seasons’ record vs. spread: 131-107-3 (55%)
This story was originally published November 25, 2021 at 4:00 AM.
