Quick Scout: KU Jayhawks basketball foe Tarleton has this clear defensive strength
Before every KU men’s basketball game, Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Friday’s game: Tarleton at No. 3 Kansas, 7 p.m., Allen Fieldhouse, Lawrence
TV/Streaming: ESPN+
Opponent’s record: 0-1
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 214
Point spread: KU by 26 1/2.
All statistics from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 STRENGTHS
• Pressure defense: Tarleton loves to get after opponents defensively, ranking 11th last season in defensive turnover percentage.
• Limiting possessions: Coach Billy Gillispie’s team had one of the most deliberate offenses in the country a season ago while averaging 19.8 seconds per possession — the 17th-slowest mark nationally.
• Experience: Tarleton has a veteran roster, with four seniors combining to play 143 of the 200 minutes in a season-opening 62-50 loss at Stanford; the team ranks 28th nationally in KenPom’s “experience” measure.
3 WEAKNESSES
• Size: Saying Tarleton plays a small lineup would be underselling it, as Gillispie did not put in a player taller than 6-foot-6 in his squad’s game vs. Stanford.
• Fouling: The Texans were extremely hack-happy a season ago, ranking in the bottom 20 in defensive free throw rate.
• Allowing threes: Opponents attempted 49% of their shots from three against Tarleton last season — the 12th-highest mark for any D-I defense.
PLAYER TO WATCH
5-foot-11 guard Montre Gipson (No. 11)
Plus: Preseason All-WAC first-team player
Plus: 49% career three-point shooter against D-I foes during two-year Tarleton career
Plus: Team’s best in transition
Plus: Strong jump-shooter from two-point range
Plus: Rarely turns it over
Minus: Not as assertive as he should be offensively given his excellent efficiency
Minus: Has lower assist rate than you’d expect; more of a scorer than a distributor
PREDICTION
KU coach Bill Self described Tarleton this way on Thursday: “They’re very small, they’re very quick and they’re very aggressive.”
Self also spoke about how it might be tough for his big men to get into a rhythm, as they’ll face a tough guard on one end while perhaps getting ignored some offensively if the Texans pressure out like they typically do.
At the moment, though, KU has a nice roster to counteract this particular style if Self wants to match small for small. The Jayhawks have a bevy of combo guards they can play together if needed, with most of them showing Tuesday against Michigan State how dangerous they can be on drives and in transition.
Tarleton does slow it down, which can’t hurt as an underdog. It was part of the reason the Texans led at halftime against Stanford earlier this week while taking advantage of a poor three-point shooting stretch from the Cardinal.
I still like KU a lot in this matchup, as it has enough point-guard types to withstand pressure with the ability to attack it for scores. Tarleton’s hacking style also is unlikely to play up at Allen Fieldhouse, where officials typically don’t give visitors the benefit of the doubt.
A fluky poor outside shooting performance from KU would be one way this game could stay close. I’m not going to predict it happens, though, while believing the Jayhawks will come away with an overwhelming victory.
Kansas 84, Tarleton 54
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas
HAWK TO ROCK
If you’re looking for a strong ball-handler who can attack pressure while looking to score .... well that seems to describe KU’s Remy Martin pretty well. Martin performed well in his first game for KU without attempting a lot of shots, but this one easily could call for a different role from him. Scoring 20-plus with an efficient line (and lots of free throws) seems like a good bet.
Last game prediction: Kansas 68, Michigan State 67 (Actual: KU 87-74) ❌
2021-22 record vs. spread: 0-1
Last eight seasons’ record vs. spread: 130-106-3 (55%)
This story was originally published November 12, 2021 at 5:00 AM.
