Kansas Jayhawks football vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys: Prediction, TV, betting line
The details
Kickoff: 6 p.m. Saturday
Where: Boone Pickens Stadium, Stillwater, Oklahoma
TV: FS1
Radio: WHB (810 AM) in Kansas City, KFH (1240 AM) in Wichita
The line: Oklahoma State by 30 1/2.
Prediction
Listen to Kansas’ coaches this week, and one of the things they were most proud of following a 35-23 home loss to Oklahoma was the players’ ability to bounce back from adversity.
KU’s first possession of the second half probably illustrated this best. After Oklahoma marched down the field for a touchdown drive to make it 10-7, KU had an immediate answer, going 10 plays for its own touchdown to pull back ahead 17-7.
Those milestones are important for a team like KU, as after 12 years of bad football, there can be a tendency to fall back to, “Here we go again” when things don’t go perfectly at the beginning of a game.
That’s the danger here against Oklahoma State. The Cowboys should be motivated after a loss. They have one of the best home-field advantages in college football.
And just a few weeks ago — in a similar circumstance — KU never recovered against Iowa State after Jayhawks quarterback Jason Bean fumbled early, as a snowball of bad momentum turned into an avalanche as the Cyclones rolled, 59-7.
OK, so that’s the bad news for KU football. The good news is that the Jayhawks have had some recent positives offensively, which starts with excellent running from true freshman Devin Neal and extends to more optimism with Bean, who had his best game last week against Oklahoma.
From a betting perspective, KU is still getting a lot of points too. Bill Connelly’s advanced rankings — typically in lockstep with the Vegas spread — like Oklahoma State by 26, which means bettors are moving this line more toward the Cowboys than we’d normally anticipate.
I don’t think KU will keep this close and would put the upset watch on this particular game at pretty close to zero.
With the spread, though? The 30 1/2-point line is more than I expected, and I think KU will avoid the avalanche to play it closer than that.
So for me: Oklahoma State wins easily, but I like KU to hold on for the cover.
Oklahoma State 45, Kansas 20
Last game prediction: Oklahoma 51, Kansas 14 (Actual: Oklahoma 35-23)
2021 record vs. spread: 4-3
2021 record on picks: 7-0
