Kansas Jayhawks football vs. Iowa State Cyclones: Prediction, sports bet line, TV
The details
Kickoff: 6 p.m. Saturday
Where: Jack Trice Stadium, Ames, Iowa
TV: FS1
Radio: WHB (810 AM) in Kansas City, KFH (1240 AM) in Wichita
The line: Iowa State by 34 1/2.
Prediction
We are no longer perfect on against-the-spread predictions in this space, but having said that ... last week seemed at least a little bit fluky for KU.
The Jayhawks failed to cover the 16-point spread against Duke despite:
• Averaging 7.4 yards per play, its highest total since 2019;
• Leading 24-21 at halftime and 27-21 early in the third quarter;
• Winning the turnover battle, 2-1.
KU had long drives end with no points and some other possessions where it settled for three. Meanwhile, Duke was efficient with its scoring opportunities, posting 38 points in six red-zone tries.
Big picture, though, KU probably played better than expectations against Duke last week while having a worse result on the scoreboard.
If we’re being honest, Iowa State has shown some similar qualities this season.
The Cyclones, for example, outgained Baylor by 197 yards last week and was even on turnovers, yet lost, 31-29, in Waco, Texas.
Underlying stats like that are a reason that Iowa State, despite results so far, is nearly a five-touchdown favorite against KU; the long-term view says some of the luck measures will even out, and when they do, the Cyclones should have more encouraging overall performances.
KU, though, might be progressing faster on offense than Vegas believes. The Jayhawks’ offensive line, in particular, seemed to come together last week to open up running holes that haven’t been created in previous weeks.
Iowa State should score a lot of points, and KU’s defense remains a mess that probably can be only fixed so much in-season. I still think the combination of KU’s improvements on offense and special teams — Iowa State hasn’t been great in the latter — will allow the Jayhawks to produce enough points that they cover the 34 1/2-point spread.
Iowa State 48, Kansas 21
Last game prediction: Duke 34, Kansas 24 (Actual: Duke 52-33)
2021 record vs. spread: 3-1
2021 record on picks: 4-0
