Quick Scout: Why Jayhawks fans can take some comfort in this KU-Texas prediction
Before every KU men’s basketball game, Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Friday’s game: No. 13 Texas vs. No. 11 Kansas, 8:30 p.m., T-Mobile Center, Kansas City
TV: ESPN2
Opponent’s record: 18-7
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 25
Point spread: Texas by 1
All statistics from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 STRENGTHS
• Three-point shooting: Texas shot the highest frequency of threes of any Big 12 team in conference play while making 36%, which was the league’s third-best mark.
• Rebounding ... both ends: The Longhorns rank 75th nationally in offensive rebound percentage while also posting the Big 12’s top defensive board rate during the conference season.
• Making teams drive: Texas is No. 1 nationally at limiting opponents’ assist percentage; teams often must try to create individual offense against a Longhorns team that doesn’t overhelp often.
3 WEAKNESSES
• Fouling: Texas puts opponents on the line at an alarming rate while ranking 293rd in defensive free throw rate.
• Carelessness: Coach Shaka Smart loves to put his guards in ball-screen situations so they have opportunities to make plays, but increasing those scenarios also has led to the team posting an above-average turnover rate.
• Creating havoc: Texas plays more of a positional style defensively without pressuring out while ranking ninth in league play in defensive turnover percentage.
PLAYER TO WATCH
6-foot-2 guard Matt Coleman (No. 2)
Plus: High-volume, 37% three-point shooter
Plus: Team’s best passer
Plus: Has 81% free throw accuracy
Plus: Outstanding finisher at the rim for his size, especially off the bounce
Plus: Dangerous shooter in transition
Minus: Doesn’t take on as large of an offensive role as you’d expect, given his efficiency
Minus: Can be turnover-prone, especially in pick-and-roll settings
Minus: Gets to the line some but not an above-average amount
PREDICTION
The Quick Scout prediction is now 0-for-5 over its last five against the spread. Yuck. Only one way to go from here, right? Right?
Anyway, KU should be plenty familiar with Texas’ style based on the previous two meetings. The Longhorns have length and athleticism inside, play above the rim, relentlessly attack the glass and also put pressure on defenses with three-point shooters and dangerous big men on the roll.
Defensively, the Longhorns try to funnel things inside while mostly resisting the urge to overhelp. That sometimes results in fouls going against defenders who are beaten, but it also has helped Texas keep opponents’ three-point attempts low while pushing the action inside where the Longhorns’ leaping ability can cause issues.
KU will be looking to avoid its third loss this year to Texas, though the Jayhawks certainly played well enough in Austin three weeks ago to think — had one more break gone their way — they could have won in what turned into a 75-72 overtime loss.
Playing without David McCormack (COVID protocols) could potentially hurt KU more in this game than its previous one against Oklahoma, simply because Texas more naturally plays a “big” lineup that has the potential to overwhelm the Jayhawks with easy baskets. Texas went 18-for-28 on shots at the rim in its last matchup against KU, and that was a contest where McCormack had foul trouble but still was able to play 24 minutes.
The projections expect a close one, with Ken Pomeroy and Bart Torvik’s systems both forecasting the final margin to be within two points.
I see Texas’ size being the difference here, with KU being unable to limit close shots on one end while struggling to create off the bounce on the other.
If my recent run of being super-wrong continues, though ... congrats, KU fans. This prediction basically guarantees the Jayhawks will be playing in Saturday’s Big 12 Tournament championship.
Texas 73, Kansas 68
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Texas
HAWK TO ROCK
Bryce Thompson performed well in KU’s last game against Texas, and he also has a skill set that should play up against the Longhorns. He’s good at creating for himself off the bounce and also has the size needed to finish plays over his own defender in isolation settings. After scoring seven points in his last three games combined, look for Thompson to hit double figures Saturday.
Last game prediction: Oklahoma 74, Kansas 71 (Actual: KU 69-62) ❌
2020-21 record vs. spread: 10-17
Last seven seasons’ record vs. spread: 129-104-3
This story was originally published March 12, 2021 at 5:00 AM.
