Quick Scout: KU Jayhawks’ foe UTEP has defensive style similar to this Big 12 team
Before every KU men’s basketball game, Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Thursday’s game: UTEP at No. 13 Kansas, 7 p.m., Allen Fieldhouse, Lawrence
TV/Streaming: ESPN+
Opponent’s record: 12-10
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 139
Point spread: Kansas by 17.
All statistics from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 STRENGTHS
• Ball security: UTEP does a good job getting a shot up most possessions, posting the 29th-best offensive turnover rate nationally.
• Defensive rebounding: The Miners’ greatest defensive strength is clearing the boards, as they rank 75th in D-board percentage while improving that number during Conference USA play.
• Free throws: UTEP has made an impressive number of its free throws — 76% — while also increasing its volume of shots at the line as the season has gone on.
3 WEAKNESSES
• Easy baskets: UTEP does not create a high volume of shots at the rim (336th nationally), and partly because of that, it has a poor two-point percentage overall (47%, 279th nationally).
• Fouling: The Miners are extremely hack-happy, ranking 320th in defensive free throw rate with the worst team mark in league play.
• Three-point shooting: UTEP — outside of free throws — basically has shooting issues all around; it shoots slightly fewer threes than an average team, while hitting a just-below-average number of those attempts (34%).
PLAYER TO WATCH
6-foot-3 guard Souley Boum (No. 0)
Plus: Team’s go-to player offensively
Plus: High-volume, accurate three-point shooter
Plus: Does excellent job creating contact and is 80% free throw shooter
Plus: Rarely comes off the court
Plus: Doesn’t turn it over often
Minus: If you avoid fouling him, he’s an awful shooter both at the rim and in mid-range
Minus: Not much of a passer
Minus: Synergy’s logs rate him as “average” overall defender who has struggled some with limiting spot-up shooters
PREDICTION
My against-the-spread picks have been, well, awful lately, so it’s time to make a late rally in an attempt to get somewhere near .500 before the season ends.
UTEP, stylistically, plays a bit like Texas defensively. The Miners do not overhelp often, which typically leads to opponents shooting fewer threes than their averages while also finding some success with individual drives. That means if guys like Marcus Garrett and Bryce Thompson can “get downhill,” as KU coach Bill Self likes to say, they could help the Jayhawks quite a bit by drawing fouls while also getting decent attempts inside.
Offensively, UTEP’s issues appear to be shot selection and shooting overall. The team not only attempts a lot of mid-range jumpers, but it also is a poor finishing team at the rim while also missing more than you’d expect in transition.
KU should be fresh with a few days rest after Baylor, and if things go well early, this also could be the type of low-pressure game where the Jayhawks’ outside shooters make a few more than they have during a recent cold stretch.
Seventeen points is a lot for the cover, but I see KU getting there and then some on what figures to be a tough shooting night for UTEP.
Kansas 81, UTEP 57
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas
HAWK TO ROCK
Another area where UTEP has struggled at times: keeping track of the roll man on pick-and-rolls. That should create some easy opportunities for David McCormack, who also should be able to create some of his own looks if he’s aggressive on the offensive glass against a team that struggles to defend that facet.
Last game prediction: Baylor 74, Kansas 65 (Actual: KU 71-58) ❌
2020-21 record vs. spread: 10-15
Last seven seasons’ record vs. spread: 129-102-3
