Quick Scout: Why KU Jayhawks-Baylor Bears matchup is likely to make 32-year history
Before every KU men’s basketball game, Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Saturday’s game: No. 2 Baylor at No. 17 Kansas, 7 p.m., Allen Fieldhouse, Lawrence
TV: ESPN
Opponent’s record: 18-0
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 2
Point spread: Baylor by 4 1/2.
All statistics from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 STRENGTHS
• Three-point shooting: Baylor, which shoots more threes than an average team, ranks first nationally in three-point percentage (43%).
• Close-shot restriction: Just 25% of opponents’ field-goal attempts against Baylor have been at the rim — the sixth-lowest defensive mark nationally.
• Second chances: The Bears have the nation’s fifth-best offensive rebounding percentage while also leading the Big 12 in that stat during conference play.
3 WEAKNESSES
• Defensive rebounding: Baylor ranks 251st in D-board percentage, and its best player in that area — Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua — might not be available after sitting out Tuesday’s game because of COVID-19 protocols.
• Creating contact: The Bears have not been physical at the rim offensively, ranking 279th in offensive free- throw rate while also getting a high percentage of their two-point attempts blocked.
• Transition defense: This is partly because of the team’s focus on the offensive glass, but Baylor is only so-so when it comes to limiting opponents’ transition attempts and adjusted shot percentages on fastbreaks.
PLAYER TO WATCH
6-foot-3 guard Jared Butler (No. 12)
Plus: Has averaged 23.2 points in five games vs. KU, which also has included two of his three career 30-plus-point contests
Plus: Fourth in KenPom’s national player of the year ranking
Plus: Elite three-point shooter
Plus: Excellent passer
Plus: Ranks 12th nationally in steal rate
Plus: Super-efficient player in transition
Minus: Doesn’t draw contact or get to the free-throw line as often as you’d expect
Minus: Synergy’s logs indicate he sometimes struggles to close out to perimeter shooters
PREDICTION
KU will have a different streak end with Saturday’s game against Baylor.
The Jayhawks — as 4 1/2-point underdogs — will not be a home favorite for the first time in at least two decades. In fact, according to research from analysis site Team Rankings, it’s believed to be the first time KU will be an Allen Fieldhouse underdog since Feb. 15, 1989 when it hosted No. 1 Oklahoma in Roy Williams’ first season.
Here’s the biggest hope for KU pulling off an upset: that Baylor is still not 100%. The Bears sat out three weeks because of COVID protocols, and their first game back — a five-point home win against Iowa State — wasn’t too inspiring, even if deeper analysis indicates the Cyclones shot quite a bit over their heads in that particular contest.
Getting back to Baylor’s earlier elite level could be tough for a lot of reasons. Some guys could still be dealing with the aftereffects of COVID. Others could be a bit out of shape, while there’s likely also something lost when a team has to miss practice time this late in the season.
KU has played better in its last six games, but this still looms as a scary matchup. The Jayhawks have reduced their turnovers lately ... but face ball-hawking guards in Butler and Davion Mitchell who easily could make their primary ball-handlers uncomfortable.
The Bears also have the ability to pull away in a hurry, thanks to a roster that features three-point sharpshooters not only in the starting lineup but off the bench as well.
KU could have expected an amazing crowd if this was any other season, but as it stands, the Jayhawks will have to get energy mostly on their own during a limited-capacity Senior Night that won’t feel like any other.
In the end, I like Baylor for the win and the cover. Forcing turnovers or hitting a lot of threes both seem like viable ways for the Bears to pull away, and without the Fieldhouse magic, KU seems more vulnerable in this spot than many past seasons.
Baylor 74, Kansas 65
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Baylor
HAWK TO ROCK
Expect Ochai Agbaji to heed coach Bill Self’s message from Tuesday’s Texas loss and shoot more often when he’s open on the perimeter. The Jayhawks need Agbaji to hunt outside spot-ups — that’s one of the team’s most efficient ways of scoring — and if he can add some threes to a couple of transition buckets, he should have a great chance to lead KU in scoring.
Last game prediction: Kansas 68, Texas 65 (Actual: Texas 75-72, OT) ❌
2020-21 record vs. spread: 10-14
Last seven seasons’ record vs. spread: 129-101-3
