Quick Scout: Here’s the KU Jayhawk who has a dream matchup vs. Iowa State Cyclones
Before every KU men’s basketball game, Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Thursday’s game: Iowa State at Kansas, 6 p.m., Allen Fieldhouse, Lawrence
TV: ESPN
Opponent’s record: 2-12
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 134
Point spread: Kansas by 14.
All statistics from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 STRENGTHS
▪ Three-point defense: Iowa State ranks first in Big 12 play in limiting opponents’ three-point attempts and also three-point percentage against.
▪ Creating havoc: The Cyclones do a good job of pressuring out defensively, ranking 69th in defensive turnover rate and 106th in steal rate.
▪ Three-point shooting: Iowa State spreads the floor offensively and especially does a great job of finding shooters for corner threes; the team ranks third in league play with 37% accuracy from deep while taking about an average number of attempts.
3 WEAKNESSES
▪ Transition defense: Iowa State has the double whammy of allowing a lot of fast-break opportunities (279th nationally) while also surrendering a high adjusted shooting percentage to opponents on those tries (314th nationally).
▪ Rebounding ... both ends: The Cyclones are last in the Big 12 in both offensive and defensive rebounding percentage during the conference season, while worse overall on the defensive glass.
▪ Rim protection: Some of this is related to the team’s transition issues, but opponents have gotten an above-average number of shots at the rim against Iowa State while making 68% of those attempts — the 13th-worst defensive mark in that location nationally.
PLAYER TO WATCH
6-foot-3 guard Rasir Bolton (No. 45)
Plus: Team’s biggest contributor offensively
Plus: Excellent passer in pick-and-roll settings who loves to find corner shooters
Plus: Gets fouled a decent amount and is 84% free throw shooter
Plus: Has posted an above-average steal rate
Minus: Poor three-point shooter; has made 29% this season on limited attempts
Minus: Synergy’s logs indicate he struggles in isolation situations offensively
PREDICTION
Iowa State’s overall statistics aren’t pretty, though some of that can be contributed to a tough schedule and some to a program that’s faced extensive COVID issues.
KU, on paper, has some clear advantages. The Jayhawks should own both ends on the glass, and especially at Allen Fieldhouse, they should get the benefit of a positive free throw differential against a Cyclones team that is slap-happy on the defensive end while not physical offensively.
For Iowa State, this should be about spreading KU’s defense and getting to pick-and-rolls so Bolton can do his thing. The Jayhawks have had some issues guarding the ball — the road loss to Oklahoma immediately comes to mind — so it’ll be up to guys like Christian Braun and Jalen Wilson to prove they can shuffle well in space when switched into tough situations.
The Cyclones also can be expected to play to threes. KU finally got some relief in its last game when Oklahoma State only made 7 of 26 from the outside, but before that, other teams’ hot perimeter shooting had easily been the Jayhawks’ biggest hindrance over the past six weeks.
I actually like KU big in this one. Iowa State should be facing some fatigue — it played Tuesday and then had to turn around for a quick road trip — and its path to success seems less reliable than KU’s while hoping to shoot its way to competitiveness.
Add in that the Jayhawks’ additional home fans might help gain an extra call or two — and that the team’s season defensive numbers still might be inflated a bit because of bad luck with opponents’ shooting percentages — and I could see KU taking the first game of this back-to-back somewhat handily at home.
Kansas 83, Iowa State 62
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas
HAWK TO ROCK
It’s a second straight excellent matchup for David McCormack, who shouldn’t have much resistance at the rim and also should gobble up a huge amount of rebounds against an opponent that doesn’t make much of an attempt to grab them. Add in that McCormack is an excellent free shooter and could find himself at the line a lot, and a 20-10 game certainly seems possible.
Last game prediction: Kansas 71, Oklahoma State 61 (Actual: KU 78-66) ✔️
2020-21 record vs. spread: 8-11
Last seven seasons’ record vs. spread: 127-98-3
This story was originally published February 11, 2021 at 5:00 AM.
