Quick Scout: Why this KU-TCU basketball prediction isn’t made with much confidence
Before every KU men’s basketball game, Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Thursday’s game: TCU at No. 15 Kansas, 7 p.m., Allen Fieldhouse, Lawrence
TV/Stream: ESPN+
Opponent’s record: 9-5
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 96
Point spread: Kansas by 13 1/2.
All statistics from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 STRENGTHS
▪ Foul avoidance: TCU has been above average when it comes to avoiding fouls in each of coach Jamie Dixon’s previous four seasons, and that trend has continued this year, with the team posting the 30th-lowest defensive free throw rate.
▪ Transition finishing: Though the Horned Frogs have some fast-break issues — they turn it over too often and don’t get out in transition as much as many other teams — they have shot well in those settings with the 20th-best adjusted shooting percentage in the shot clock’s first 10 seconds.
▪ Three-point shooting: TCU isn’t amazing with threes, but it has shot a higher volume than NCAA average while making a respectable 35% of those tries.
3 WEAKNESSES
▪ Defensive havoc: The Horned Frogs do almost no pressuring defensively, ranking 299th in defensive turnover rate while also seeing that number dramatically slip since the start of Big 12 play.
▪ Carelessness: Dixon’s team registers a high number of assists, but the stats also indicate that some over-passing may be happening as well, with TCU ranking 245th in offensive turnover rate.
▪ Allowing easy shots: Center Kevin Samuel provides some strong rim protection in the back, but overall, TCU allows way too many shots at the basket, with 44% of opponents’ field goal attempts coming from that location (327th nationally).
PLAYER TO WATCH
6-foot-5 guard RJ Nembhard (No. 22)
Plus: Takes on huge offensive load
Plus: Team’s best passer
Plus: Strong three-point shooter
Plus: Excellent finisher at the rim in both transition and half-court settings
Plus: Draws decent amount of fouls and is 74% free throw shooter
Minus: Turns it over a bunch
Minus: Often settles for mid-range jumpers, which has hurt his overall efficiency
PREDICTION
This is a tough one to pick based on the circumstances.
KenPom’s projections like KU by 12, while Bart Torvik’s favor the Jayhawks by 10. Those are quite a bit off the 13 1/2-point line ... though that also is understandable based on what TCU’s going through.
This will be the Horned Frogs’ first game back after sitting out more than two weeks because of COVID protocols, which means the team might not have a full roster if some players haven’t been cleared medically. Stamina and conditioning also should be a concern given the team’s lack of practice time recently.
KU also is in a weird spot, though, with coach Bill Self promising some rotation changes following his team’s third straight loss Saturday. The Jayhawks are still finding their own identity — especially offensively — so predicting a Jayhawks blowout also could be a bit ambitious.
I’m going to stick close to the projections with this one. It’s a bit scary to wonder what TCU will look like with so little preparation, but KU hasn’t played as well at home this season, and 13 1/2 remains a large number to surpass if the Horned Frogs are able to play a majority of their rotation players as expected.
I don’t have a great feel either way, but I’m more comfortable taking the points while believing TCU can outplay what it showed in its previous three contests.
Kansas 72, TCU 62
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: TCU
HAWK TO ROCK
TCU’s defense is vulnerable to back-cuts, meaning this could be a great opportunity for Jalen Wilson to snap out of an offensive slump while also showing off his distributing abilities. Look for KU to put the ball in his hands more as a playmaker, which should lead to a nice offensive day against a TCU defense that will provide little in the way of defensive pressure.
Last game prediction: Kansas 75, Oklahoma 70 (Actual: Oklahoma 75-68) ❌
2020-21 record vs. spread: 5-9
Last seven seasons’ record vs. spread: 124-96-3
