Quick Scout: Why exploiting this Oklahoma Sooners weakness could be key for Jayhawks
Before every KU men’s basketball game, The Star’s Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Saturday’s game: No. 9 Kansas at Oklahoma, 11 a.m., Lloyd Noble Center, Norman, Okla.
TV: ESPN
Opponent’s record: 8-4
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 27
Point spread: Oklahoma by 1.
All statistics from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 STRENGTHS
▪ Ball security: Oklahoma’s offense attempts to kill you with shot volume, posting the seventh-lowest offensive turnover rate nationally.
▪ Foul avoidance: This has been a coach Lon Kruger staple; the Sooners ranked third and first nationally in lowest defensive free-throw rate the last two seasons and are at fourth through 12 games this campaign.
▪ Fast break offense: Oklahoma is a solid all-around team in transition, getting an above-average number of attempts with a decent shooting percentage while almost never turning it over in those settings.
3 WEAKNESSES
▪ Three-point defense: Oklahoma, according to Synergy’s points-per-play ranking, is in the seventh percentile nationally defending half-court spot-up attempts and the 19th percentile against threes; perimeter defense is the team’s clear weakness.
▪ Creating contact: The Sooners have a great free-throw percentage (76%) but they rarely get to the line with their non-physical play offensively.
▪ Second-chance points: Oklahoma’s offensive rebounding rate has slipped in Big 12 play, and the team also has struggled to convert stick-back attempts at the rim.
PLAYER TO WATCH
6-foot-9 forward Brady Manek (No. 35)
Plus: Accurate, high-volume outside shooter
Plus: Takes the highest percentage of team shots when he’s in
Plus: Almost never turns it over
Plus: Has developed into a capable shot-blocker
Minus: Played just 11 minutes in Oklahoma’s last game while gaining conditioning back after sitting out 10 days because of COVID-19 protocols
Minus: Has just nine free-throw attempts in 10 games
Minus: Someone KU can attack on the defensive end; Synergy’s “overall” defensive rank for him is in the fourth percentile nationally
PREDICTION
This is as close to a coin-flip game as KU is going to get all season.
KenPom’s projections like Oklahoma by one, while Bart Torvik’s favor the Sooners by two. The Vegas line (Oklahoma by one) has stuck pretty close to that, which makes sense, especially considering the Sooners are coming off two of their best performances in road blowouts against TCU and Kansas State.
This still feels like a game where KU could be destined to catch a break. Jayhawks’ opponents have shot 42% from three since 2021 started, and while some of that can be pinned on poor defense ... most of it is just rotten luck.
Oklahoma’s defense didn’t make it easy on KU in the first matchup, and it didn’t help that the Jayhawks shot only 30% from three when they were able to free up some high-quality looks.
Lloyd Noble Center is typically among the least hostile settings that KU faces, and given the Jayhawks’ three-point success in the last game’s loss to Baylor, I could see Ochai Agbaji and Christian Braun looking a bit more aggressively for their shot, which is the right way to play against these Sooners.
I think it’ll be close, but I like KU to pull out another close one against Oklahoma with better shooting this time around.
Kansas 75, Oklahoma 70
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas
HAWK TO ROCK
Ochai Agbaji was KU’s most efficient offensive player in the first Oklahoma matchup, and if you’re picking an outside shooter to thrive for KU ... he’s been the most consistent. Agbaji hasn’t hit 20 points in his last six games, but I think he gets there Saturday.
Last game prediction: Baylor 82, Kansas 68 (Actual: Baylor 77-69) ❌
2020-21 record vs. spread: 5-8
Last seven seasons’ record vs. spread: 124-95-3
