Quick Scout: Here’s the luck(?) factor to watch in KU Jayhawks-West Virginia matchup
Before every KU men’s basketball game, The Star’s Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Tuesday’s game: No. 7 West Virginia at No. 3 Kansas, 8 p.m., Allen Fieldhouse, Lawrence
TV: ESPN2
Opponent’s record: 7-1
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 7
Point spread: Kansas by 2 1/2.
All statistics from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 STRENGTHS
▪ Offensive rebounding: West Virginia has changed a lot stylistically this season, but this part hasn’t: The Mountaineers rank 12th in O-board percentage after finishing top 10 in that stat each of the previous six seasons.
▪ Ball security: This is a drastic departure from the last few years, as recently-turnover-happy West Virginia has done a great job taking care of the ball, ranking 45th in offensive turnover rate.
▪ Foul avoidance: The Mountaineers, after being one of the most foul-prone teams in the nation the past five seasons, has flipped that in one offseason while ranking 82nd in defensive free throw rate so far.
3 WEAKNESSES
▪ Shot selection: West Virginia loves taking mid-range jumpers, shooting the 13th-highest percentage of shots nationally from that inefficient location.
▪ Three-point shooting: This is part of the reason for the previous weakness ... the Mountaineers barely ever shoot threes, and they’re only about NCAA average when they do put them up, despite their choosiness on those attempts.
▪ Allowing close shots: Because of its stylistic choices, West Virginia surrenders a lot of opponent fast-break opportunities and, in general, a high number of overall shots at the rim.
PLAYER TO WATCH
6-foot-10 forward Derek Culver (No. 1)
Plus: 7th in KenPom’s national player of the year ranking
Plus: Go-to player offensively
Plus: Outstanding rebounder, both ends
Plus: Gets fouled and goes to free throw line often
Plus: Team’s best shot-blocker
Plus: Has cut his turnover rate in half this season
Minus: Doesn’t shoot threes
Minus: Poor finisher at the rim in half-court settings
PREDICTION
I generally like West Virginia in this spot, with one big caveat we’ll get to in a moment.
The overall numbers lean West Virginia against the spread; KenPom’s projections have KU by two, while Bart Torvik’s like the Mountaineers by a point.
This also seems like a tough spot for KU coach Bill Self. The Jayhawks’ best lineup thus far has been five guards, and it seems to me their best way to counter the Mountaineers’ big lineup with Culver and Oscar Tshiebwe would be to go tiny, potentially giving up some offensive rebounds while also taking full advantage of the mismatch on the other end with Jalen Wilson being checked by a big, lumbering dude.
It’s tough for KU to fully transition that way, though, with a limited five-guard lineup playbook. Self also hates giving up easy baskets, so if KU is giving up offensive rebounds at any point, one could see him quickly going back to the greater defensive security that a bigger lineup would seem to provide.
West Virginia isn’t forcing as many turnovers or steals this season, but it still is pressuring out and overplaying passing lanes. One way to counter this is back-cuts, though KU hasn’t done much scoring off those this season. The Jayhawks also could make the Mountaineers’ big men work against a bunch of ball screens, but again, this hasn’t been KU’s most efficient team in that regard either.
That leads to the caveat: It sure looks like West Virginia has benefited from some great luck so far with three-point defense. In transition, opponents have made only 28% of their threes, while in half-court, they’ve made just 27%.
This doesn’t seem sustainable. Synergy has West Virginia allowing nine “unguarded” spot-up attempts per game, while allowing just 0.77 points per possession on those tries. That “defense” ranks in the 87th percentile nationally.
West Virginia went under a lot of ball screens in its recent close game against Iowa State, and KU certainly has enough outside shooters in Wilson, Ochai Agbaji and Christian Braun to take advantage if they’re looking for their shot.
I still like West Virginia overall, especially with Allen Fieldhouse not at full capacity. The building has almost single-handedly won a few recent games in this matchup the last few seasons, but that just won’t be as likely here, especially with the Mountaineers getting their foul issues more under control this season.
West Virginia 75, Kansas 72
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: West Virginia.
HAWK TO ROCK
KU will need Jalen Wilson to be his toughest self on the boards against West Virginia’s tenacious big men, but if he survives on that end, he’s got huge potential for 20-plus points while driving over or shooting around guys like Culver and Tshiebwe.
Last game prediction: Texas Tech 66, Kansas 63 (Actual: Kansas 58-57) ❌
2020-21 record vs. spread: 3-4
Last seven seasons’ record vs. spread: 122-91-3
