With Big 12 play looming, here’s one big question KU basketball still has to solve

It’s a good time to look ahead following Kansas basketball’s 95-50 home victory over Omaha on Friday.

The Jayhawks were supposed to win by a lot, then won by even more than that, leaving little to analyze in terms of schemes and X’s and O’s on a night when the visitor was simply overmatched.

For KU, the more important season begins next week. The Jayhawks start Big 12 play at Texas Tech, the beginning of a brutal conference slate that will feature eight different games against top-10 KenPom opponents.

With that in mind, one dilemma — to me — looms larger than others when it comes to this particular KU team. And it’s a riddle that KU coach Bill Self has yet to solve in the first three weeks of the season.

The Jayhawks have an issue on offense, and for now, that seems to be a matter of fit.

Using some basic advanced stats, let’s examine where KU’s at ... and also where Self might go from here.

The numbers now

Let’s look at two numbers specifically: offensive rating and usage rate.

I promise these aren’t as scary as you think. Offensive rating is simply an individual’s efficiency when he’s in, showing how many points he produces per 100 possessions based off his made shots, missed shots and turnovers.

Usage rate, meanwhile, is just one’s offensive load. Twenty percent is average, so anything above that means a player is more aggressive offensively than the norm.

Here are the numbers for KU’s top guards from KenPom.com, which only takes into account Div. I games:

This is all relatively promising for the Jayhawks. Marcus Garrett — the team’s least efficient player above — has appropriately been more passive offensively than his three teammates. Christian Braun is aiding KU’s offense in a secondary role, while Ochai Agbaji and Jalen Wilson have been rightfully aggressive, posting some of the best efficiency numbers on the team.

Who makes them better?

Self is at the point in the season where he needs to ask this question: Which other player fits those four best? And in turn, which one complements their skill-sets to make KU a better overall team?

Based on those four players’ numbers above, KU should be trending as a top-10 offensive team. Instead, it’s been 24th.

The biggest reason: David McCormack has been an awkward fit.

These numbers immediately stand out. Not only has McCormack lagged well behind the other four starters in efficiency, but he’s also ended a crazy amount of KU possessions, especially when considering his lack of success thus far.

The good news for McCormack is these stats can still change. He’s been a miserable finisher at the rim, for example, and you’d think that number will improve with time.

Still ... what you see above is unsustainable, at least if KU wants to have an elite offense. Using College Basketball Reference’s Play Index, I searched for all players over the last decade with an offensive rating below 85, a usage rate above 30 and minutes played of more than 15 per game over a full season.

The query returned only 20 results, and just one from a Power Five roster: Texas A&M guard T.J. Starks in 2018-19 ... on a team that finished 120th offensively.

Basically, this sort of thing doesn’t continue. Players with McCormack’s output either figure out ways to become better offensively, start to take fewer shots or lose playing time altogether.

KU — because Wilson and Agbaji haven’t been shy about taking on big offensive roles — doesn’t need McCormack to take on this kind of load either. Easing off some seems like a natural way for McCormack to help both himself and his teammates, at least in the short term.

What are other options?

Self’s job, first and foremost, is to win games, so nothing says he can’t choose from other alternatives to play alongside the four highlighted above.

Here’s a look at how the rest of KU’s rotation players have performed offensively.

Remember, these numbers aren’t permanent. Though six games is getting to be a better sample size, many of these players could still quickly flip their stats with another good outing or two.

It’s still tough to ignore the obvious: If you strip away preconceived notions, there’s a real case to be made that Mitch Lightfoot should get more time with KU’s four other guards.

Offensively, Lightfoot’s been efficient, making 70% of his twos while also getting to the free-throw line often. His rebounding numbers have been strong, and he’s also the best rim-protector on a percentage basis that KU has.

Self also has the option of going 5-Out with no big men, and if he does that, he has enough capable bodies to go with a hot hand. None of those reserves has completely risen above their counterparts offensively, though, so that would likely have to be decided on a case-by-case basis.

The bottom line

Self should feel confident at this point about what he’s getting from Garrett, Braun, Agbaji and Wilson. The four provide a decent floor defensively and also have had impressive offensive numbers thus far, with perhaps the potential to do even more if called upon.

If KU wants to raise its offensive ceiling, however, it has to figure out that fifth spot. McCormack needs to substantially improve his play or change his role, or Self at some point will be forced to sift through other options.

Lightfoot impressed in his 14 minutes Friday and should be on the verge of more playing time.

This won’t be about talent. It’ll be about fit.

And there’s still time for many Jayhawks to prove they should be in there ... if they’re willing to think team ahead of themselves.

Jesse Newell

The Kansas City Star

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Jesse Newell covered the Chiefs for The Star until August 2025. He won an EPPY for best sports blog and previously was named top beat writer in his circulation by AP’s Sports Editors. His interest in sports analytics comes from his math teacher father, who handed out rulers to Trick-or-Treaters each year.