Quick Scout: Here’s where Vegas and I disagree on this KU Jayhawks-Omaha matchup
Before every KU men’s basketball game, The Star’s Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Friday’s game: Omaha at No. 5 Kansas, 6 p.m., Allen Fieldhouse, Lawrence
TV: ESPN2
Opponent’s record: 2-4
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 215
Point spread: Kansas by 24.
All statistics from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 STRENGTHS
▪ Defensive rebounding: Omaha has been an excellent defensive rebounding team each of the last three seasons, and a big reason for that is Wichita native Matt Pile, who grabs defensive boards at an elite level.
▪ Forcing tough shots: The Mavericks have held down opponents’ two-point shooting percentages in a somewhat unorthodox way; the team is not overly tall and rarely blocks shots, but it has forced a high number of mid-range jumpers while also ranking 43rd in field goal percentage against in those situations.
▪ Experience: Omaha — ranking 49th in KenPom’s minutes continuity stat — starts two seniors and three juniors, with its best player (Marlon Ruffin) also coming off the bench as a junior.
3 WEAKNESSES
▪ Three-point shooting: Omaha has the double-whammy of rarely attempting threes while only making 28% of those tries.
▪ Transition defense: The Mavericks have given up a high number of fast-break shot attempts and also have allowed a higher-than-average adjusted field goal percentage in those situations.
▪ Shot selection: Omaha has attempted the 20th-highest percentage of mid-range jumpers while connecting on those already inefficient shots at a below-NCAA-average clip.
PLAYER TO WATCH
6-foot-5 guard/forward Marlon Ruffin (No. 23)
Plus: Earned Summit League player of the week on Nov. 30
Plus: Team’s unquestioned go-to guy offensively when he’s out there
Plus: Does great job drawing fouls and has made 21 of 22 free throws so far
Plus: Capable three-point shooter who is choosy on those attempts
Plus: Synergy’s logs rate him as a “very good” overall defender who has a knack for creating steals
Minus: Suffered an ankle injury Dec. 3 and missed team’s last game Saturday; will he play and be back and full strength?
Minus: Has been below average efficiency-wise in transition settings each of the last two seasons
PREDICTION
Assuming Ruffin is healthy, this pick has everything to do with one’s confidence in KU right now.
KenPom’s projections have the Jayhawks by 22, while Bart Torvik’s numbers like KU by 21. The line is 24, meaning bettors are somewhat expecting the Jayhawks to raise their level of play above what they’ve shown so far.
And I agree with that to an extent. It feels like KU’s best basketball is still ahead, as the team continues to shuffle through lineups while also grinding toward the end of a rough eight-game-in-18-day stretch.
Still ... 24 is a big number. And this looms as one of the last “tinker” games for KU, which means even if the Jayhawks do build a lead, coach Bill Self is likely to empty his bench while trying to get reserves more comfortable.
Omaha, frankly, is not impressive on paper. The team doesn’t shoot well, and its weakness of allowing transition points often looms as an even bigger disadvantage for opponents at Allen Fieldhouse.
Yet ... I don’t think I’ve seen enough good from KU to this point to believe that this game will get to super-crazy blowout potential.
Yes, the Jayhawks should win easily. But I don’t see this deficit getting up to where Vegas expects.
Kansas 80, Omaha 60
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Omaha.
HAWK TO ROCK
After going scoreless last game against Creighton, Ochai Agbaji has an excellent opportunity to bounce back offensively. Not only does Omaha struggle to get back in transition, but it also has left perimeter shooters wide open too often this season. In other words ... the Mavericks’ weaknesses match up pretty decently with Agbaji’s top strengths.
Last game prediction: Creighton 71, Kansas 68 (Actual: Kansas 73-72) ✔️
2020-21 record vs. spread: 3-2
Last seven seasons’ record vs. spread: 122-89-3
