Quick Scout: Flying somewhat blind with this KU Jayhawks-Washburn Ichabods prediction
Before every KU men’s basketball game, The Star’s Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Thursday’s game: Washburn vs. No. 7 Kansas, 7 p.m., Allen Fieldhouse, Lawrence
TV: ESPN+
Opponent’s record: 3-0
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: N/A (Division II school)
Point spread: N/A.
All statistics from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 STRENGTHS
▪ Three-point shooting: Washburn has made 42% of its threes through three games while hoisting up a high volume of perimeter attempts.
▪ Transition offense: One-fifth of the Ichabods’ shots have been in transition — a high percentage — with the team scoring a decent 1.0 point per possession in those scenarios.
▪ Defensive rebounding: Washburn has grabbed 79% of its opponents’ missed shots thus far — an elite-type percentage that would’ve ranked second in Division I last season had another team posted similar numbers.
3 WEAKNESSES
▪ Three-point defense: Opponents have shot 41% of their field goal attempts from three against Washburn — a high number — while making 37% of those tries.
▪ Free throw shooting: Maybe a small-sample-size blip here, but the Ichabods are just a 54% free throw shooting team thus far.
▪ Transition defense: KU should have opportunities to run Thursday, as Washburn has allowed 1.1 points per possession on opponents’ fast-break attempts.
PLAYER TO WATCH
6-foot-1 guard Tyler Geiman (No. 12)
Plus: First-team all-conference player last season
Plus: Versatile players who averaged 15 points, 6 rebounds and 6 assists in 2019-20
Plus: Strong spot-up shooter
Plus: Excellent passer both in half-court and transition settings
Minus: Synergy’s logs indicate he can struggle to get out to three-point shooters
PREDICTION
We’re forced to fly mostly solo when it comes to this particular prediction.
Because this is a Division I vs. a Division II game, there is neither a Vegas line nor score projections posted at sites like KenPom. Guesswork, then, is about the best we can do.
Washburn is receiving votes in the latest Division II poll, meaning it’s a strong program that is not considered elite yet. In future games, KenPom has KU favored by 23 over Nebraska-Omaha (204th in his D-I ranking) and by 31 over Tarleton State (333rd), and if Washburn was playing Division I, I’d probably slot it somewhere between the two.
This is also tricky because of what KU will be trying to get out of this game. Coach Bill Self needs gimmes like this to get guys like David McCormack, Bryce Thompson and Tyon Grant-Foster more comfortable, so the mission is obviously to win, but it’s also to utilize this contest as effectively as possible. If KU is able to build a decent lead, in other words, it shouldn’t have too much motivation to leave in starters, especially with a jam-packed schedule ahead.
Put it all together, and here’s the official prediction: KU scores in the 90s and wins by a margin in the high 20s.
Kansas 91, Washburn 63
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: N/A.
HAWK TO ROCK
If Washburn’s defensive issues with threes and transition continue, then it could be a big night for Ochai Agbaji, who thrives in both facets. Look for him to lead the Jayhawks in scoring against the Ichabods.
Last game prediction: Kansas 77, Kentucky 70 (Actual: Kansas 65-62) ❌
2020-21 record vs. spread: 2-1
Last seven seasons’ record vs. spread: 121-88-3
