Quick Scout: The biggest question KU basketball faces against No. 1 Gonzaga
Before every KU men’s basketball game, The Star’s Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Thursday’s game: No. 6 Kansas vs. No. 1 Gonzaga, 12:30 p.m. Central, Suncoast Credit Union Arena, Fort Myers, Florida
TV: Fox
Opponent’s record: 0-0
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 1
Point spread: Gonzaga by 4.
All statistics from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
3 Strengths
▪ Offense ... overall: Gonzaga has ranked first in adjusted offensive efficiency the last two years and has a great shot at making that three seasons in a row with this year’s personnel.
▪ Easy buckets: The Bulldogs, who love to run in transition, had the eighth-highest percentage of shots at the rim last season while ranking 31st in accuracy on those attempts.
▪ Rebounding: Gonzaga, which had one of the tallest rosters in the nation a season ago, finished top 30 in both offensive and defensive rebounding percentage — two areas that are typically strong under coach Mark Few.
3 Weaknesses
▪ Creating havoc: Few’s teams usually play a more conservative defensive style, which means the Zags often are a below-average team when it comes to forcing turnovers.
▪ Rim protection? Gonzaga returns an OK shot-blocker in 6-foot-10 Drew Timme, but overall, the Bulldogs allowed more shots at the rim last season than you’d expect while going up against a non-top-100 schedule.
▪ Volume three-point shooting: The Bulldogs made an impressive 39% of their three-pointers last season, but they only ranked 303rd in percentage of shots taken from that location, meaning they are especially choosy on those tries.
Player to watch
6-foot-7 wing Corey Kispert (No. 24)
Plus: Preseason first-team AP All-America
Plus: High-volume, accurate three-point shooter
Plus: Rarely turns it over
Plus: 79% career free throw shooter
Minus: Below-average shooter at the rim
Minus: Was more of a role player offensively last year; didn’t create own shot much and also didn’t draw fouls often
Prediction
This game should feature strength vs. strength on one end of the floor.
Gonzaga’s offense has been outstanding in recent years, and that shouldn’t change this season with returners like Kispert coming together with highly touted newcomers including freshman guard Jalen Suggs and Florida transfer Andrew Nembhard.
KU, though, should have the potential to lock down many of its opponents this season. Marcus Garrett leads the group as the reigning national defensive player of the year, and while rim-protector Udoka Azubuike is gone, the Jayhawks have a nearly never-ending supply of 6-5 to 6-9 wing-types with long wingspans who should be able to switch all screens on the perimeter while making it difficult for opponents to run their plays.
The bigger question for KU comes on the offensive end. Gonzaga wasn’t elite on defense last season — 43rd in adjusted defensive efficiency at KenPom — but projects to be better based on the players it’s added this offseason.
KU, meanwhile, has many unknowns offensively, especially early. Who will be the go-to scorer? Will David McCormack be asked to take on a greater offensive role? And if so, how can KU remain efficient while losing so many of the close shots it got last year by playing through Devon Dotson and Azubuike?
The Jayhawks shouldn’t have to worry about the turnover issues they had in last season’s opener against Duke — the Zags’ non-aggressive defense make that less of a concern — but I still could see KU struggling offensively, especially if some of the newcomers like Bryce Thompson and Tyon Grant-Foster are naturally hesitant in their KU debuts.
It never feels great picking against Bill Self in games like this — he’s 18-7 against AP top five teams in his KU tenure — but I could see this one getting a bit away from the Jayhawks if they labor to score like I think they might.
Gonzaga 71, Kansas 63
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Gonzaga
Hawk to Rock
It’s difficult to pick anyone other than David McCormack in this spot, given the matchup and KU’s current circumstances. Gonzaga wasn’t great at defending post players a year ago, and McCormack was never hesitant to shoot last season as a reserve, putting up a healthy 26% of the team’s shots while he was in. A double-double to start the season seems like a decent bet for KU’s big man.
Last game prediction: Kansas 72, Texas Tech 65 (Actual: KU 66-62) ✔️
2019-20 record vs. spread: 20-11
Last six seasons’ record vs. spread: 119-87-3
