Kansas Jayhawks football: 5 bold predictions and game-by-game picks
The 2020 offseason did no favors for the Kansas football team.
One of KU’s biggest sources for optimism — a soft non-conference schedule — was mostly wiped out because of the COVID-19 pandemic. So now, instead of starting off with winnable games against New Hampshire, Boston College and Coastal Carolina, the Jayhawks only get Coastal Carolina ... and that’s before the treacherous stretch of a nine-game Big 12 slate.
Thus, casual fans looking for coach Les Miles to improve on last year’s three-win total are likely to be disappointed. Not only is KU working with fewer games, but it also will have a talent discrepancy against league opponents, as Miles made the difficult but correct decision in February to take all high school players in his recruiting class.
The message: KU’s second-year coach is willing to sacrifice short-term success for long-term gain. While the Jayhawks could have used more-ready juco guys at many positions in 2020 — quarterback, defensive line and secondary, to name a few — they instead will be taking their lumps with inexperienced players, knowing the potential payoff will be worth it if the development goes as planned.
There’s still a season to play this year, though. KU will be a slight favorite in the home opener over Coastal Carolina, then will likely be a double-digit underdog in each of its remaining nine games.
Progress, then, should be judged on a curve for Miles in 2020 — a benefit given to him because he prioritized big-picture goals over win-now measures.
Here are five bold predictions for KU’s upcoming season and game-by-game picks.
1. KU will get its first road Big 12 victory since 2008
This is the year to do it, right? Home-field advantage — with either no fans or limited spectators at Big 12 stadiums — is likely to be lessened a bit this season, and KU also faces most of its weaker conference opponents on the road in 2020. So here’s the call: KU will defeat West Virginia on Oct. 17 in Morgantown, W.Va., picking up its first league road victory since Oct. 4, 2008.
That win against Iowa State, by the way, happened when Mark Mangino was the coach ... and also was two years before iPads were invented.
2. KU will average its highest scoring total since the Mangino era
Trivia question: Which KU team averaged the most points since Mangino left the program? That would be the 2018 Jayhawks, who scored 23.8 points per game in coach David Beaty’s final year. Last year’s team came close to that (23.5), and though KU has major questions at quarterback and offensive tackle in 2020, it also has talented skill players and a coordinator (Brent Dearmon) who had a mostly impressive six-game audition after taking over that job midway through last season.
Add in the fact that KU will be pushing the pace with Dearmon — perhaps adding a possession or two more each game — and there’s the potential for KU fans to see the team’s most productive offense in a decade.
3. Pooka Williams will lead the Big 12 in scrimmage ypg
KU’s dynamic running back finished third in the conference last season (106.3 yards per game), but he faces a huge obstacle when it comes to taking the top spot. Oklahoma State running back Chuba Hubbard not only is a preseason Heisman frontrunner, but he also led the nation in this particular stat a season ago (176.3).
Unpredictable stuff happens in sports, though, and with a full year under Dearmon, expect Pooka Williams’ production to go up from 2019 as he takes on an increased role as a receiver. Hubbard could get hurt, and he also might not live up to last year’s unrealistic standard. Either way, this is a bold prediction that has at least a chance of coming though.
4. KU’s defense will allow more ppg than any team in the nation
If every FBS school was playing, this wouldn’t be a prediction; UMass allowing 52.7 points per game a year ago would’ve made it the clear preseason favorite for this spot if its season hadn’t been canceled by COVID. As it stands now, though, KU should have reason to worry it could end up bottom five — if not last — on this list by season’s end.
The Jayhawks are replacing almost their entire defensive line and secondary, and their best player — linebacker Dru Prox — missed most of last year with an injury before also getting nicked up with a minor ailment in August practices, according to Miles.
Combine all that with a brutal schedule, and KU will likely be surrendering a lot more than the 36.1 points per game it did last season (120th out of 130 nationally). Allowing anywhere in the 40s, it seems, would put the Jayhawks in the conversation for this unwanted feat.
5. Takulve Williams will be KU’s third-leading receiver
Andrew Parchment and Stephon Robinson are solidified as KU’s top two receivers after their strong production a season ago. And while receivers coach Emmett Jones has done an excellent job of developing guys — while also bringing some talented true freshmen to campus — look for Takulve Williams to be one of KU’s biggest breakout players in 2020.
Williams had just four catches for 24 yards a season ago ... but also had one of the best routes of the season, shimmying a Texas defender to end up wide open for one of KU’s easiest touchdown catches of the year. Dearmon has talked in the past about Williams’ skill level, and while senior Kwamie Lassiter and freshman Lawrence Arnold also have potential, look for Williams to be the one to emerge most from that group.
GAME-BY-GAME PREDICTIONS
Sept. 12 vs. Coastal Carolina (9 p.m. on FS1): KU lost at home to Coastal Carolina last year, so a mini-upset is certainly possible again. The Jayhawks shouldn’t be more than a touchdown favorite here, while they also will have to play without the benefit of a home crowd. Look for KU’s offense to be better balanced than it was a season ago in this contest, though, with KU’s passing offense helping the team to win No. 1. KU 31, Coastal Carolina 27.
Sept. 26 at Baylor (Time and TV TBA): Baylor — for whatever reason — has owned KU in recent contests. Here are the last five scores: 66-7, 49-7, 38-9, 26-7, 61-6. KU should get to double digits this time, even if it’s not competitive. Baylor 52, KU 14.
Oct. 3 vs. Oklahoma State (Time and TV TBA): Will KU have fans back in the stands for this game? It probably won’t matter much either way, as Oklahoma State will come to Lawrence with a preseason top-15 team. Oklahoma State 55, KU 20.
Oct. 17 at West Virginia (Time and TV TBA): KU will be an underdog against West Virginia, and in any other year, home-field advantage would be a bigger concern. This still seems like the most likely chance for KU to pull off a Big 12 upset, though, especially considering the Mountaineers’ offensive struggles in 2019. KU 38, West Virginia 35.
Oct. 24 at Kansas State (Time and TV TBA): Previous K-State defensive coordinator Scottie Hazelton moved on to Michigan State, and that’s probably a good thing for the Jayhawks, who were stifled in last season’s 38-10 home loss to the Wildcats. K-State is still the better and more balanced team, though, and it shouldn’t have any issues winning this one in Manhattan. K-State 37, KU 14.
Oct. 31 vs. Iowa State (Time and TV TBA): KU had a fourth-quarter lead on Iowa State last year before eventually falling, 41-31, in Ames. Brock Purdy returns as one of the top quarterbacks in the nation, though, and he’s likely to find success against the Jayhawks’ inexperienced secondary. Iowa State 49, KU 27.
Nov. 7 at Oklahoma (Time and TV TBA): On paper, this is the most lopsided matchup of the Big 12 season. The Sooners offense shouldn’t have any problem getting to the 50s. Oklahoma 58, KU 20.
Nov. 21 vs. Texas (Time and TV TBA): KU needs some favors from the weather gods for these two weeks. The colder it is, the better the Jayhawks’ chances will be against a pair of warm-weather, Texas-based schools. Even if the wind chill is in the negatives, though, it’s tough to envision KU upsetting Texas here. Texas 45, KU 34.
Nov. 28 vs. TCU (Time and TV TBA): Playing against KU in Lawrence has historically been a difficult game for TCU, especially when the weather is chilly. Either way, KU will be a significant underdog, so calling for the shocker would be a bit too ambitious. TCU 31, KU 13.
Dec. 5 at Texas Tech (Time and TV TBA): These two teams brought up the rear in the preseason Big 12 coaches poll. Look for a competitive game, but not a KU win. Texas Tech 52, KU 42.
Final Record: 2-8 (1-8 Big 12).
