KU basketball’s best comebacks of the decade? Here’s how one novel stat ranks them
It’s sometimes fun to look at basketball through a different lens.
And that’s why, lately, I’ve enjoyed looking at Bart Torvik’s “GameScript +/-” in college basketball.
Though the final score of a game tells you who won, it often lacks context. Did a team dominate most of the game, then give some of its lead back late? Or did it make a furious rally after getting outplayed for 30 minutes?
This is exactly where GameScript +/- can be useful. In essence, the stat gives the average lead (or deficit) a team faced over the course of a given game, while looking at each one-minute increment.
Here’s Torvik explaining it in his own words:
Let’s say a game is scoreless for 60 seconds, and then Kansas hits a three, and then there is another scoreless 60 seconds. At that point, there would have been 60 seconds of 0, and 60 seconds of +3. So the avg. margin would be [(0*60) + (3*60)] / 120 = 1.5. So the “+/-” just does that for every lead over the course of the game, and then divides by the total time.
Fascinating, right?
This measurement, then, lends itself to some interesting observations. For example, KU has won 30 games between 2011 and 2020 while having a negative GameScript +/-.
So what are the greatest KU comebacks over the last decade, using Torvik’s GameScript +/- stat?
Here’s a list of the top seven ... all of which featuring instances where KU trailed, on average, by at least five points over the course of its victory.
7. Kansas 64, Ohio State 62 — March 31, 2012 (KU GameScript +/- of negative-5)
KU coach Bill Self broke down this Final Four game during his “Self Perspective” offseason video series, describing his team’s play this way: “We were confident, and we go into this game and we lay an egg the first half.” The Jayhawks trailed 32-19 through 18 1/2 minutes before staging their rally.
6. Kansas 84, West Virginia 80, OT — Feb. 13, 2017 (KU GameScript +/- of negative-5)
KU was behind 64-50 with less than three minutes left against a top-10 team before Devonté Graham fueled the comeback with some trick-shot threes. It might have seemed like this one would be higher on the list, but KU led by five late in the first half and also dominated overtime.
Self described the outcome this way afterward: “I think it’s the most remarkable win I’ve ever been a part of, and we’ve had some great ones here ... “
5. Kansas 87, Missouri 86, OT — Feb. 25, 2012 (KU GameScript +/- of negative-5)
KU trailed by 19 with 16:24 left before coming all the way back in one of Allen Fieldhouse’s most memorable games. This ranking would be higher had the two teams not played so close early; neither team led by more than five in the first 15 minutes, and the score was tied at 31 with 5 minutes left in the first half.
4. Kansas 63, Purdue 60, OT — March 18, 2012 (KU GameScript +/- of negative-5)
Just three weeks after its resurgence against Missouri, KU duplicated the feat in the NCAA Tournament to take down Purdue in the Round of 32. The Jayhawks trailed by 11 early in the first half, and their biggest lead — three — was the game’s final deficit.
3. Kansas 71, Florida 65 — Dec. 5, 2014 (KU GameScript +/- of negative-6)
This is likely to be the forgotten contest among this group. KU recovered from an 18-point second-half deficit with 16:43 left, later putting together a 17-0 run of its own. Wayne Selden led the Jayhawks with 21 points.
2. Kansas 71, West Virginia 66 — Jan. 15, 2018 (KU GameScript +/- of negative-7)
The only road game on this list ... KU was behind 16 in the first half, 13 at intermission and 15 in the second half before storming back. Svi Mykhailiuk and Devonté Graham combined for three three-pointers in a key 123-second stretch, while the Mountaineers helped out in the second half too, turning it over 11 times then while making just 1 of 13 threes.
1. Kansas 76, West Virginia 69, OT — March 3, 2015 (KU GameScript +/- of negative-8)
Poor Bob Huggins. The coach has been on the other sideline during three of KU’s best comebacks this decade, including this top showing where the Jayhawks clinched — outright — their 11th consecutive Big 12 title on Senior Night.
West Virginia led by as many as 18 in the first half, by 14 at halftime and by eight with 2:32 left. The Jayhawks also played the second half without leading scorer Perry Ellis, who suffered a knee injury, and won despite going 0-for-15 from three.
KU was aided by West Virginia missing some late free throws, while also making 34 of 43 from the line itself.
In total, the Mountaineers were ahead for 36 minutes, 29 seconds, compared to 4:28 for KU.
“We deserved to win the game. We really did,” Huggins said in the postgame press conference afterward. “We just didn’t do enough at the end.”