Quick Scout: Two areas where KU basketball should be better this time vs. Texas Tech
Before every KU men’s basketball game, The Star’s Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Saturday’s game: No. 1 Kansas at Texas Tech, 1 p.m., United Supermarkets Arena, Lubbock, Texas
TV: ESPN
Opponent’s record: 18-12
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 21
Point spread: Kansas by 3 1/2.
All statistics from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
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Sign up3 Strengths
▪ Shooting: Texas Tech leads the Big 12 in effective field goal percentage during league play, posting top-two marks in three-point, two-point and free throw accuracy.
▪ Creating havoc: The Red Raiders are 15th in defensive turnover percentage and 36th in steal rate, with a helping style that leaves opponents always wary of potential charge calls offensively.
▪ Forcing mid-range: Texas Tech does a great job of coaxing teams into mid-range shots, as 33% of opponents’ field goal attempts have been from that overall inefficient area (28th-best mark nationally).
3 Weaknesses
▪ Rebounding ... both ends: In conference play, Texas Tech ranks eighth in offensive rebounding percentage and last in D-board rate.
▪ Fouling: This weakness has gotten worse as the year has gone on, as the Red Raiders’ defensive free throw rate is second-worst in league play and ahead of only Kansas State.
▪ Carelessness: Though Texas Tech has excellent assist rates, it also appears to have a tendency to over-pass at times, ranking 254th in offensive turnover rate.
Player to watch
6-foot-3 guard Davide Moretti (No. 25)
Plus: High volume, accurate three-point shooter
Plus: Ranks 98th percentile nationally on spot-up situations in half-court
Plus: Gets to foul line often
Plus: Has 91% career accuracy on free throws
Minus: Efficiency has experienced major dip this season as he’s taken on greater offensive role
Minus: Can be turnover prone, especially in pick-and-roll settings
Minus: Very rarely gets shots at the rim
Prediction
The Vegas line is within a half point of both Ken Pomeroy and Bart Torvik’s projections, which means even with the motivation potentially being different both of these teams, bettors aren’t straying too far from the numbers.
KU is likely to have its full complement of players. Coach Bill Self mentioned Wednesday he had thought about sitting out both Udoka Azubuike and Marcus Garrett from this game because of their ankle and foot injuries, but then he quickly backtracked on that thought after saying both reported that they felt much better physically in KU’s win over TCU.
The Jayhawks also will welcome back Silvio De Sousa following a 12-game suspension, though we shouldn’t expect him to play more than a handful of minutes following that long of a layoff.
There’s obviously an immediate tendency to overreact to what happened to KU last year in Lubbock. The Jayhawks lost 91-62 then, with the Red Raiders putting up the No. 1 adjusted offensive efficiency performance of the entire 2018-19 basketball season, according to Torvik’s numbers.
KU still could struggle in Lubbock on Saturday, but it’s probably safe to say that last year was a crazy outlier while also acknowledging this year’s KU team is much improved defensively.
Texas Tech only lost 78-75 in the teams’ first matchup at Allen Fieldhouse with help from strong shooting and some rare ball security. The Red Raiders posted their third-lowest turnover rate of the season in that game, and a main focus for KU on Saturday will be doing a better job of putting on pressure defensively to force mistakes.
KU also should have a huge edge on the glass ... which again, the team did not fully exploit in that first contest on Feb. 1.
If we expect improvement in both areas from the Jayhawks this time around, there’s reason to like KU’s chances at both a win and cover here. KU has fared well on the road this season and also is likely to be loose offensively given the lower stakes, with this team typically performing its best on that end when playing to both two- and three-point shots.
I foresee the Jayhawks playing well in this one.
Kansas 72, Texas Tech 65
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas
Hawk to Rock
Texas Tech’s defense does a good job of limiting assists while forcing opponents to make plays off the bounce. That’s a specialty of KU point guard Devon Dotson, who should have the potential for an efficient day offensively while also contributing some steals on the other end.
Last game prediction: Kansas 71, TCU 52 (Actual: KU 75-66) ❌
2019-20 record vs. spread: 19-11
Last six seasons’ record vs. spread: 118-87-3
This story was originally published March 7, 2020 at 7:01 AM.
