Quick Scout: My best guess at how KU-TCU (and Udoka Azubuike’s minutes) will play out
Before every KU men’s basketball game, The Star’s Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Wednesday’s game: TCU at No. 1 Kansas, 7 p.m., Allen Fieldhouse, Lawrence
TV/streaming: ESPN+
Opponent’s record: 16-13
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 84
Point spread: Kansas by 16.
All statistics from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
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Sign up3 Strengths
▪ Offensive rebounding: This characteristic follows coach Jamie Dixon wherever he goes; TCU is 39th in O-board percentage this year, and Dixon’s teams have been top 85 in this stat each of his last 17 seasons.
▪ Three-point prevention: The Horned Frogs rank 61st when it comes to restricting opponents’ attempts from the perimeter.
▪ Challenging shots inside: TCU is the Big 12’s top team in league play when it comes to defensive block rate, rejecting 14% of opponents’ two-point tries.
3 Weaknesses
▪ Carelessness: TCU is 319th in offensive turnover rate, with that deficiency only becoming worse during conference play.
▪ Transition offense: The Horned Frogs don’t run much on fast breaks, and they’re also not often successful on those rare times they do, ranking 257th in adjusted shooting percentage in those situations.
▪ Interior scoring: In Big 12 play, TCU has made only 44% of its twos (ninth in conference) while having 15% of its inside attempts blocked (worst in Big 12).
Player to watch
6-foot-6 guard Desmond Bane (No. 1)
Plus: Easily team’s most efficient offensive player
Plus: Second in Big 12 in three-point attempts and has 42% accuracy there
Plus: Good passer
Plus: Has team’s best steal rate
Plus: Rarely turns it over
Minus: Doesn’t get a high volume of shots at the rim
Minus: Not a physical player; does not get to the free throw line often
Prediction
KenPom’s numbers like KU by 17, while Torvik’s favor KU by roughly the same total as well.
That means this 16-point spread is tricky, especially considering the uncertain status for Udoka Azubuike with his ankle injury.
TCU struggles against shot-blockers, which means Azubuike’s potential impact could be important with backup David McCormack not possessing the same rim-protecting prowess. You might also remember Azubuike went dunk-crazy in the first matchup against the Horned Frogs (20 points, 10-for-14 shooting), so the Jayhawks could potentially be hampered some on that end too if Azubuike has to sit out a majority of the game.
If Azubuike does play some, though, there are reasons to like KU in this spot. The Jayhawks should be energized defensively at home on Senior Night, and that should play up against TCU, which has trouble taking care of the ball no matter the location.
The Horned Frogs shoot a lot of threes and are capable from there, but they don’t have much of a fallback option if those don’t go down. TCU is bad in transition, bad in the lane and bad at getting to the foul line, which means even pulling down offensive rebounds hasn’t resulted in the same sort of positives that Dixon normally sees with his teams.
My best guess on how it plays out: Azubuike plays about 20-25 minutes, TCU struggles to score against him (and in general) and an amped-up KU defense creates turnovers which leads to some easy points.
Even in a low-possession game, that leaves me thinking KU can still get to both a win and cover.
Kansas 71, TCU 52
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas
Hawk to Rock
He seemed to be battling through his foot injury last game, but this remains an excellent matchup for KU guard Marcus Garrett. TCU coughs it up often and allows lots of assists, which lines up directly with Garrett’s strengths of creating steals and being a strong distributor. Garrett was held scoreless in the first game at TCU, but that shouldn’t impact our thoughts about him in this one; a 12-5-5-5 type of line seems possible if his health is better than it was Saturday.
Last game prediction: Kansas 68, Kansas State 60 (Actual: KU 62-58) ✅
2019-20 record vs. spread: 19-10
Last six seasons’ record vs. spread: 118-86-3
This story was originally published March 4, 2020 at 11:12 AM.
