Quick Scout: Here’s one key area to watch in KU basketball’s rematch vs. K-State
Before every KU men’s basketball game, The Star’s Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Saturday’s game: No. 1 Kansas at Kansas State, 12:30 p.m., Bramlage Coliseum, Manhattan
TV: CBS
Opponent’s record: 9-19
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 101
Point spread: Kansas by 11 1/2.
All statistics from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
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Sign up3 Strengths
▪ Pressure defense: This is the yearly Bruce Weber staple that has carried over even in a down season; K-State ranks eighth nationally in defensive turnover rate and also eighth in steal percentage.
▪ Creating contact: The Wildcats have been the Big 12’s second-best team at getting to the free-throw line during league play.
▪ Second chances: K-State is an above-average team on the offensive glass, ranking 104th in O-board rate, even though those numbers have slipped a bit in conference play.
3 Weaknesses
▪ Shooting ... nearly everywhere: K-State’s shooting struggles are most apparent in mid-range (331st in shooting accuracy), the free-throw line (325th) and from three-point range (242nd).
▪ Carelessness: The Wildcats are 306th in offensive turnover rate and have averaged 17 giveaways in their last three games.
▪ Three-point defense: Like KU’s previous opponent Oklahoma State, K-State allows a high volume of outside shots, with opponents typically coming away with efficient offense when they get those attempts.
Player to watch
6-foot-4 guard Cartier Diarra (No. 2)
Plus: One of team’s two go-to players offensively
Plus: Team’s best passer
Plus: Good finisher at the rim for his size in half-court settings
Plus: High-volume three-point shooter, and makes just enough that you can’t ignore him out there
Plus: Excellent defensively when it comes to steals
Minus: Turnover prone
Minus: Has not been an efficient player in transition
Prediction
It’s best to always start with the projections.
KenPom’s numbers like KU by 13, while Torvik’s favor KU by 12. It’s a good reminder, no matter how both teams are trending, that it’s difficult for a line to get too crazy when the underdog team is at home and likely to get a four-point bump there.
Obviously, KU has the advantage in nearly every area, but that comes with a caveat. K-State’s greatest strength — getting steals — has the potential to neutralize many of the advantages that the Jayhawks have.
For example, the Wildcats have had the conference’s worst-two-point defense in league play, which would seem to not match up well going up against KU’s Devon Dotson and Udoka Azubuike. However, if K-State can pressure out and make KU uncomfortable running its offense — while also getting steals in the process — there’s a path there to not only defensive success but also some easy buckets in transition.
We all know the crowd will be crazy, especially following the brawl at the end of the last matchup at Allen Fieldhouse.
I think that energy will be beneficial for K-State. It should promote defensive aggressiveness while also making it difficult for the officials, who likely will allow the two teams to play with some physicality on the perimeter.
I still like KU to win. But give me the Cats to cover in a game I think they’ll keep close with their defense.
Kansas 68, Kansas State 60
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas State
Hawk to Rock
K-State struggles against shot-blockers offensively and also offers little resistance in the paint defensively. Udoka Azubuike should have a big statistical game, though he’ll have to avoid foul trouble and perhaps will be limited in his shot attempts because of the pressure K-State will put on KU’s guards.
Last game prediction: Kansas 72, Oklahoma State 62 (Actual: KU 83-58) ❌
2019-20 record vs. spread: 18-10
Last six seasons’ record vs. spread: 117-86-3
