Quick Scout: Taking a look beyond the numbers with this KU-Oklahoma State pick
Before every KU men’s basketball game, The Star’s Jesse Newell previews the Jayhawks’ upcoming opponent with a scouting report and prediction.
Monday’s game: Oklahoma State at No. 1 Kansas, 8 pm., Allen Fieldhouse, Lawrence
TV: ESPN
Opponent’s record: 14-13
KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 62
Point spread: Kansas by 15.
All statistics from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and Synergy Sports Technology. KenPom stats also only include Division I competition.
KU basketball news with Jesse Newell
Sign up to get the inside scoop on Kansas Jayhawks basketball from Jesse Newell, and text him back your questions and thoughts on the team and its season.
Sign up3 Strengths
▪ Pressure defense: Oklahoma State ranks inside the top 90 nationally in both defensive turnover percentage and steal rate.
▪ The foul line: The Cowboys create contact more than an average team and also have made 73% of their free throw attempts.
▪ Transition defense: Opponents get a decent number of fast-break looks against Oklahoma State, but the team has rallied in those situations, allowing the 13th-lowest adjusted shooting percentage during the first 10 seconds of the shot clock.
3 Weaknesses
▪ Field goal shooting ... everywhere: Oklahoma State ranks 300th in accuracy on shots at the rim, 289th in the mid-range and 298th on three-pointers.
▪ Three-point defense: The Cowboys are 340th when it comes to three-point prevention; as a side note, 61% of KU’s shots were threes in the first matchup vs. OSU — the highest percentage of any game Bill Self has coached at KU.
▪ Fouling: Oklahoma State’s defensive free throw rate has gone up dramatically in Big 12 play, with each of the team’s last six opponents attempting at least 20 shots at the line.
Player to watch
6-foot-7 forward Cameron McGriff (No. 12)
Plus: Has become a better and more efficient player since Big 12 play began
Plus: Scored 28 points in Oklahoma State’s home win Saturday vs. Oklahoma
Plus: Best skill is creating contact and getting to line, where he makes 83%
Plus: Solid rebounder, both ends
Plus: Team’s best scorer in transition
Minus: Synergy’s logs rank him as “below average” defender who has especially struggled in isolation situations
Minus: Poor three-point shooter (31%) ... though he did make 4 of 6 last game
Minus: Settles for too many inefficient mid-range jumpers
Prediction
Both KenPom’s and Torvik’s numbers like the Jayhawks by about 16 in this one — roughly a point more than the Vegas spread.
And while I’m often one to side with the numbers ... there’s something important that needs to be taken into account: Self’s mindset heading in.
My colleague Gary Before wrote about this, but pay close attention to Self’s words about Monday’s matchup.
“They are exhausted,” Self said of his team after Saturday’s Baylor win. “They’ve got to be toast. Doke (Azubuike) and Marcus (Garrett) and Ochai (Agbaji) and ‘Dot’ (Devon Dotson) … those guys have gotta be toast with as many minutes as they played.”
Self seems to be speaking to reality here. After an emotional road victory over Baylor, Monday’s game appears to simply be a “hold serve” contest, where the Jayhawks might not expect quite as much from themselves simply based on the circumstances.
The rest part is important too. If KU does build a comfortable lead against Oklahoma State, I’d think the natural tendency will be for Self to rest some of his guys, especially after they had to grind for so many minutes during Saturday’s game in Waco.
Oklahoma State has major shooting issues, and the team’s uptick in fouls recently is not a great characteristic to have entering Allen Fieldhouse.
This still seems like a good spot to take the Cowboys to cover, with Self unlikely to ride his best players too hard given recent events.
Kansas 72, Oklahoma State 62
Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Oklahoma State
Hawk to Rock
He had a rough outing against Baylor, but this is a perfect position for Ochai Agbaji to bounce back with a nice offensive game. The Cowboys tend to ignore three-point shooters quite a bit, and Agbaji should get plenty of opportunities to break out his recent shooting slump if he simply takes the open ones. Look for a 15-plus-point night from him.
Last game prediction: Kansas 68, Baylor 66 (Actual: KU 64-61) ✅
2019-20 record vs. spread: 18-9
Last six seasons’ record vs. spread: 117-85-3
